The total cryptocurrency market cap sits around $2.7 trillion — still below the logarithmic regression fair-value trend line, and one analyst argues it is likely to remain there through the end of 2026. The current rally, while real, has not materially moved the broader valuation picture on a long-term chart stretching back to 2010.
The argument centers on a structural shift that began in 2021: for the first time, Bitcoin had to contend seriously with macro headwinds — inflation, labor market concerns, and a prolonged higher-for-longer rate environment. The result was a cycle that peaked on apathy rather than euphoria, never durably breaching into overvaluation territory in the way 2013 or 2017 did.
Relative performance adds another layer of context. Despite trading above $80,000, Bitcoin is down year-to-date against the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, gold, and energy — meaning the recovery has…
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