Bitcoin stalls at bear market resistance — history says the hard part is still ahead.

Bitcoin has rallied back into what analysts call the bear market resistance band — a level it has tested briefly in prior cycles (March 2022, February and July 2018, and mid-2014) without ever sustaining a hold. The pattern is consistent across midterm years: short incursions above the band, followed by rejection. The base case remains that this time is unlikely to be different, even accounting for the fact that the cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria.

A key macro headwind flagged for the coming months is energy prices. In 2022, the XLE energy ETF peaked in June — which coincided almost exactly with a local Bitcoin low — before rallying again into November. A repeat of that dynamic would put upward pressure on inflation expectations, making Fed rate cuts harder to justify and removing one of crypto's most reliable tailwinds: loose monetary policy.

Diminishing drawdowns from…

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