BTC seasonality still tracking — analyst eyes late-April Fed meeting as next key inflection.

With Bitcoin back near $75K in mid-April and having swept the February high without extending much further, analyst Benjamin Cowan draws a parallel to the 2018 cycle: a February low, a bounce, a higher low in late March/early April, and then a lower high in late April before one final sweep in early May.

Cowan is careful to frame seasonality as a probabilistic tool — roughly 70% reliable — not a deterministic one. The early-April window of weakness did play out, he argues, even though it produced a higher low rather than a lower one. That distinction matters: weakness windows don't require lower lows to be valid.

The next event on his radar is the late-April Fed meeting, which he flags as a potential catalyst aligned with the seasonal window where 2018 saw its next lower high form. Whether history rhymes or diverges, the setup warrants attention heading into month-end.

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