CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's 20% April rally is a 'bear market rally' — and profit-taking is just getting started!

Bitcoin has climbed more than 20% since the start of April to a three-month high, but onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant isn't ready to call it a bull market. Head of research Julio Moreno classifies the move as a "bear market rally," pointing to a structural combination of earlier undervaluation, easing macro pressure, and a surge in perpetual futures demand — none of which, in his view, constitutes a regime change.

The profit-taking data backs the caution. On May 4, bitcoin holders realized 14,600 BTC in daily profits — the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. The Short-Term Holder SOPR has held above 1.00 continuously since mid-April, confirming broad distribution across the holder base. On a 30-day rolling basis, net profit realization has flipped positive to +20,000 BTC, the first such reading since December 22, 2025, after net losses bottomed at -398,000 BTC in…

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