US Labor Market Holds Steady — But Summer Claims Pickup and a Late-Year Stock Correction Loom

The latest US labor market data came in largely as expected, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and initial claims remaining subdued. Layoffs are still running near pre-pandemic levels, and a modest uptick in hiring was one of the more notable data points — though whether that represents the start of a new trend or a one-off remains to be seen. Job openings and quit rates are both low, painting a picture of a market that is stable but not dynamic: jobs exist, but competition for them is real.

The macro read is that without a meaningful drop in asset prices, the feedback loop that typically drives a recession is unlikely to engage. The recession risk dashboard has stayed below 0.16 since 2020, and while the number of states seeing rising unemployment over a six-month window is growing, it is not yet the nationwide sweep seen in 2001 or 2008.

The seasonal caveat matters: initial…

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