Weak U.S. Payrolls Could Lift Bitcoin — But Sticky Wages Are the Real Test!

Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is shaping up as a pivotal macro event for crypto. Economists forecast April job growth of just 62,000 — down sharply from March's 172,000 — with unemployment holding near 4.3%. On the surface, softer hiring reinforces expectations that the Fed stays on hold through 2025, a backdrop that has historically supported bitcoin and other risk assets.

The complication is wages. Average hourly earnings are expected to print at 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% prior. Sticky wage growth, layered on top of Brent crude nudging above $100 a barrel and an unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation, keeps the stagflation narrative alive. QCP Capital warned that if crude fails to de-escalate before the May 20 FOMC minutes, "the stagflation narrative will become much harder to dismiss."

For bitcoin specifically, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich flags $75,000…