Bitcoin is selling off against a backdrop of rising bond yields — a combination that historically signals risk-off pressure across asset classes. What's unusual this time is that BTC's implied volatility, the options market's forward-looking uncertainty gauge, remains subdued despite the price weakness.
Low implied volatility during a drawdown can mean one of two things: either the market is genuinely unworried and views the dip as contained, or options traders haven't yet priced in a larger move that could be coming. The divergence between falling spot prices and calm vol surfaces is worth watching — historically, when IV catches up to price action, it tends to do so quickly.
Rising Treasury yields add a macro headwind, tightening the discount rate that underpins risk assets broadly. If yields continue climbing and BTC fails to stabilise, the vol surface may reprice sharply — and…