Bitcoin is pressing against its 200-day moving average — a level that has acted as a ceiling in every midterm-year bear market since 2014. Analyst Benjamin Cowen of Into the Cryptoverse notes that while BTC has breached the 200-day MA briefly in 2014 and 2019, those moves were counter-trend rallies that ultimately failed, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $85K representing the next plausible resistance if the current level breaks.
Cowen draws a structural parallel to 2019, when Bitcoin topped roughly two months after quantitative tightening ended — a timing pattern that has repeated this cycle. A ~52% drawdown from the cycle high preceded both the 2019 and current counter-trend rallies, and monthly Heikin-Ashi candles briefly turning green in 2014 and 2019 (but not 2018 or 2022) are being watched as a potential signal of which historical template applies.
The broader thesis…
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