Bitcoin's Biggest Macro Test of 2026: CPI, a New Fed Chair, and Trump-Xi All Hit This Week!

The week of May 11-15 compresses more macro risk into a single sequence than any prior window in 2026. April CPI lands Tuesday, PPI follows Wednesday, retail sales and the Fed's H.4.1 balance sheet data hit Thursday, and Jerome Powell's chair term formally ends Friday — the same day Kevin Warsh could inherit his first live inflation signal before markets have any read on his reaction function. Layered on top: Trump meets Xi in Beijing on May 14-15, adding trade, tariffs, Taiwan, and dollar-risk channels to an already saturated calendar.

Bitcoin enters the week near $81,000, having recovered from the high-$75,000s around the April 29 FOMC. The recovery improved chart structure, but the next leg depends entirely on macro confirmation. BTC now trades through real yields, the dollar, ETF allocation flows, and Fed liquidity — not just spot crypto demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had…