One of the more compelling technical debates in the current Bitcoin cycle centers on whether price action is tracing 2018 or 2019 — and the similarities to 2018 are hard to ignore. In both periods, Bitcoin carved a major low in February, followed by a higher low in April, and then a rally toward the 200-day moving average in May.
The structural pattern is nearly identical, just scaled by a factor of ten. In 2018, the initial low came in around $6,000, with the higher low near $6,400. In the current cycle, those reference points sit at roughly $60,000 and $66,500 — the same relative architecture, one decade apart.
The open question is whether the 2018 analogue ultimately resolves the same way it did then — with a prolonged downtrend — or whether the macro and institutional backdrop of 2024 breaks the pattern before it completes.
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