Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 over the weekend, putting the $76,000 zone — and the much larger $70,000 risk case — back on the table after a rejection near the 200-day moving average around $82,200. Wintermute told clients the shift is the clearest test of market depth since the rally off $60,000, with derivatives positioning rather than spot demand now doing most of the work. The weekend slide toward $76,800 alone triggered roughly $657 million in liquidations across major exchanges, with longs absorbing about $584 million of the forced selling.
Why it matters
The price weakness is a direct read-through from a deteriorating macro backdrop. April's CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year against a 3.7% consensus, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.58% — its highest level since September 2025. Fed funds futures have now wiped out the rate cuts previously priced for 2026 and are assigning a 44% probability to a December hike, up from 22.5% a week ago. Wintermute said the desk conversation has moved from "when do they cut" to "do they hike" in just five trading sessions, a regime change that mechanically drains the case for non-yielding assets.
That repricing is also landing on a market whose April advance was carried by leverage, not spot conviction. CryptoQuant flagged the fastest growth in BTC perpetual futures open interest so far in 2026 as prices pushed toward $80,000, and Glassnode showed the seven-day simple moving average of net spot ETF flows dropping to minus $88 million per day — the lowest since mid-February. Spot Bitcoin ETFs printed $1 billion in net outflows last week, ending a six-week inflow streak. Layered on top, the narrow Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh — a historically hawkish choice — goes into the June 16-17 FOMC, where a fresh dot plot and updated SEP land at the same moment macro is already tightening.
Market impact
The technical map is now binary. Bitcoin has been rejected near the 200-day moving average at roughly $82,200 five times this month, leaving $76,250 — the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the all-time high — as the next real support.
Perguntas frequentes
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Porque é que o Bitcoin está a cair abaixo dos $78.000?
A hot-than-expected April CPI print (3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected), a surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.58%, and Fed funds futures now pricing a 44% probability of a December rate hike have compressed the bid for non-yielding assets. A rejection near the 200-day moving average around $82,200 and $1B in…
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Qual é o principal nível de suporte do Bitcoin a vigiar agora?
CEX.io flags $76,250 — the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of Bitcoin's all-time high — as the next real support. Below that, a break under $75,000 combined with continued ETF outflows brings the $70,000 risk case directly into play. Reclaiming $78,000 is the level bulls need to defend to reopen a path toward $80,000.
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Quanto é que as liquidações atingiram a BTC durante a queda do fim de semana?
Wintermute estimates roughly $657 million in liquidations across major exchanges as Bitcoin slid toward $76,800, with long positions accounting for about $584 million of the forced selling. The cascade reflected the leverage buildup CryptoQuant flagged during the April push toward $80,000 — the fastest growth in BTC…
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Porque é que os detentores de longo prazo de Bitcoin são relevantes se o preço está a cair?
Dedicated long-term holders added roughly 80,000 BTC over the past seven days, the sell-side risk ratio has fallen to its lowest level since October 2023, and exchange reserves remain at multi-year lows — signaling structural conviction rather than capitulation. CEX.io frames this as a structural floor, though it…
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Que papel desempenha o novo presidente da Fed na venda de Bitcoin?
Kevin Warsh's narrow Senate confirmation landed just as markets were repricing Fed policy toward a hike bias. Wintermute notes Warsh brings a historically hawkish reputation into the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where a fresh dot plot and updated Summary of Economic Projections will be released — a setup that tightens…
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