A $166 billion pool of IEEPA tariff refunds — stripped from the Trump administration by a Supreme Court ruling — is now moving through Treasury accounting, and the macro read for Bitcoin is more consequential than most traders initially priced. US Customs and Border Protection had already processed $35.46 billion in refunds as of May 11, covering 86,874 applications across 15.1 million entries. That's roughly 21% of the eligible pool, and the remaining volume is large enough to shift both bank reserve balances and risk-asset pricing if disbursements accelerate.
The mechanism runs through the Treasury General Account: when the TGA pays out, the Fed credits the recipient bank's reserve account, pushing reserves higher without new issuance. The TGA held $758.8 billion on May 15 against roughly $3.10 trillion in reserve balances — a full $166 billion payout would equal about 5.3% of…
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