TheBlock
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told investors they are significantly underestimating how much onchain transaction activity tokenization and artificial intelligence will eventually generate. In a research note, Hougan sketched three mistakes he thinks crypto investors are making, with the headline forecast that blockchain transaction counts could grow 10x to 100x from current levels.
He anchored the low end of that range by arguing tokenized stock transaction counts alone could grow tenfold "without breaking a sweat," because tokenized equities would trade around the clock rather than from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET on weekdays, lifting available trading hours from 33 to 168 per week. AI agents executing trades on investors' behalf could compound that further, though Hougan conceded more hours would not map one-to-one onto proportionally higher volume. "I can imagine 50x or 100x," he wrote.
Why it matters
Hougan's broader argument is that the market is still valuing crypto applications against the markets they serve today, not the markets they could serve once assets are tokenized. He sized the addressable opportunity at roughly $150 trillion in global equities and $350 trillion in global bonds, against a crypto market that sits near $2 trillion, with five public companies individually larger than all of crypto combined. The same expansion logic, he said, applies to Uniswap, Hyperliquid, Aave, and Chainlink, all of which he argued could command a market far larger than crypto trading alone.
Market impact
Hougan also argued investors are undervaluing the crypto-native platforms themselves relative to traditional finance's slow push into the sector. He pointed to Tether and Circle's combined 88% share of the stablecoin market versus PayPal's roughly 1%, Coinbase's grip on U.S. crypto custody, and the offshore perpetual futures market running larger volumes than CME's crypto derivatives business. BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETFs show traditional firms can still dominate traditional financial wrappers, Hougan conceded, but he expects tokenization to keep rewarding the rails already inside the crypto stack.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is Bitwise's Matt Hougan forecasting for blockchain transactions?
Hougan argued blockchain transaction counts could grow 10x to 100x from current levels as tokenized assets and AI-driven trading agents move onchain. He placed the low end of that range at a tenfold increase in tokenized stock transactions alone.
-
How does 24/7 trading drive Hougan's growth estimate?
Hougan said tokenized equities would trade continuously instead of only during the 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET weekday window, lifting available trading hours from 33 to 168 per week. He conceded the conversion from hours to volume would not be perfectly proportional.
-
Which crypto platforms does Hougan think are undervalued?
Hougan named Uniswap, Hyperliquid, Aave, and Chainlink as platforms whose potential market is much larger than just crypto trading. His thesis is that tokenization expands these venues into stocks, bonds, real estate and other tokenized assets.
-
How big is the addressable market Hougan cites for tokenization?
Hougan sized the global equities market at roughly $150 trillion and global bonds at roughly $350 trillion, against a crypto market near $2 trillion. He noted five public companies are each individually larger than the entire crypto market today.
-
Does Hougan think crypto-native firms can beat traditional finance?
Hougan argued crypto-native platforms remain competitive as tokenization expands, citing Tether and Circle's combined 88% stablecoin share versus PayPal's roughly 1%, Coinbase's U.S. crypto custody position, and offshore perpetual futures volumes outpacing CME's crypto derivatives book. He conceded BlackRock's spot…
CoinDesk
Crypto News
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
CryptoSlate