CoinDesk
Across 79 NFP releases since January 2020, Bitcoin moved an average of 2.1% on release days, roughly matching typical daily volatility on non-NFP days. BTC closed higher on 39 occasions and lower on 40, leaving the directional record effectively split.
The Sept. 4 report is expected to show 56,000 jobs added after July's surprise loss of 23,000, with unemployment at 4.2% versus 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3% year on year, down from 3.2%, while markets price roughly a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month.
The historical takeaway is that NFP has little predictive value for day traders. Bitcoin's biggest responses came during 2022's volatile bear market, including an 11.4% jump on Feb. 4, 2022, and a 7.8% drop on March 4, 2022. A sharp move in Treasury yields is the key condition to watch.
Frequently asked questions
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How often did BTC close higher or lower on NFP release days?
BTC closed higher on 39 of 79 NFP release days since January 2020 and lower on 40, leaving the record nearly evenly split.
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What does the Sept. 4 report forecast for jobs, unemployment and wages?
The report is expected to show 56,000 jobs added, a 4.2% unemployment rate and 3% year-on-year wage growth, down from 3.2%.
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What rate-cut odds are markets pricing before the report?
Markets are pricing roughly a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month.
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Which NFP days produced Bitcoin's sharpest moves in the period?
Bitcoin jumped 11.4% on Feb. 4, 2022, after the January jobs report, then dropped 7.8% on March 4, 2022, after the next NFP release.
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Why might Treasury yields matter more than the payroll headline for BTC?
A major NFP-driven move in Treasury yields could pull BTC and other markets with it, making yields the key transmission channel for traders.
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