CoinDesk
Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 on Thursday after dipping to roughly $59,200 late Wednesday, but the rebound was almost entirely a stock story. A blowout Micron sales forecast lifted Nasdaq 100 futures 1.8% and dragged crypto off the lows without putting a bid under it. BTC still finished the day down 2.9% and 5.4% on the week, per CoinDesk data, and the damage was sharper across majors: ETH slid 2.8% to $1,616 for a 7.9% weekly loss, XRP fell to $1.07 (-9.2%), and SOL dropped to $68.
Why it matters
Crypto stopped trading the oil-and-war tape that drove June and started trading its own. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, framed the move in an email to CoinDesk as a product of three converging forces: continued outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and a U.S. dollar that hit a seven-month high. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced assets costlier for foreign buyers and pulls capital out of risk trades generally, which is why a 15% Micron pop and a 1.8% lift in Nasdaq futures could not drag BTC with it.
The longer-term read is uglier. Bitcoin is hovering near its 200-week moving average, the roughly four-year trend line that has marked the floor of every prior bear cycle. FxPro flagged the pattern: weakness near the 200WMA lasted about nine months in 2015, six months in 2018, and roughly six quarters after the 2022 collapse, and the firm now calls the current setup a crypto winter rather than a quick dip.
Market impact
The near-term tape is a $61,800 to $62,000 band, which Kuptsikevich described as a cluster of resting orders that could either pull BTC higher as shorts are forced to cover or cap the bounce as resistance. A break below opens $55,000 as the plausible cycle low, and he urged traders to lead with risk management rather than chase the rebound.
The next test is U.S. inflation data, the Fed's preferred price gauge, due later in the session. A hot print reinforces the hawkish Fed and the strong dollar now weighting on crypto. A soft one would ease both, but the ETF outflows and thin demand that the stock rebound did nothing to fix are still the dominant headwinds.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin still under pressure even with stocks rebounding?
FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich said the selloff is being driven by three forces independent of the AI trade: ongoing outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and a U.S. dollar that hit a seven-month high, all of which weigh on dollar-priced risk assets regardless of equity-market direction.
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What is the 200-week moving average and why does it matter for Bitcoin?
The 200WMA is the average BTC price over the past roughly four years, treated as a long-term cycle floor. The last three times Bitcoin sank to that line, weakness lasted about nine months in 2015, six months in 2018, and roughly six quarters after the 2022 collapse, a pattern FxPro says points to a crypto winter…
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Which cryptocurrencies lost the most this week?
Dogecoin and Hyperliquid's HYPE led the declines at 11.9% and 11.7% over seven days, per CoinDesk data. XRP fell 9.2%, ether 7.9%, solana also slid, and bitcoin was down 5.4% on the week. Tron was the only major higher, up 1.9%.
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What level does Bitcoin need to hold to avoid a deeper drop?
Kuptsikevich pointed to a $61,800 to $62,000 band as the immediate test, a cluster of resting orders that could either pull BTC higher via short-covering or cap the bounce as resistance. A break below that band opens $55,000 as a plausible cycle low, he said.
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What upcoming data could shift the crypto tape next?
The Fed's preferred U.S. inflation gauge is due later in the session. A hot print would reinforce the hawkish Fed stance and the strong dollar weighing on crypto, while a soft reading could ease both, though the ETF outflows and thin demand would remain the underlying headwinds.
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