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Bitcoin was trading just above $80,000 after falling more than 4% month to date, putting it on track for a second consecutive losing October. Galaxy Research says the market may have already turned a corner, pointing to a potential bottom near $76,500 on June 30 and a shift into accumulation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $110 million in net inflows on October 26, ending a two-day outflow streak, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for nearly all the gains.
Why it matters
Galaxy declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment, citing multiple weekly closes above the 50-week moving average. BTC was about 5% above that measure, which stood near $76,000. The firm also said long-term holder distribution has eased, while macro traders and basis-focused funds have reduced exposure. Asset managers' net-long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have also declined from previous highs.
Those shifts point to less forced or speculative selling, even without a broad surge in new buyers. The signal is not universal across crypto markets: U.S. spot Ether ETFs saw $88 million to $90 million in outflows during the same session.
Market impact
Bitcoin's immediate test is the $75,800-$76,500 area around its 50-week moving average. Continued spot ETF inflows and subdued selling would support Galaxy's accumulation thesis. A sustained weekly close below that zone, without a quick recovery, would undermine the assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower.
The market is therefore balancing a weak monthly price record against improving long-term structure. ETF follow-through and the defense of moving-average support are the clearest indicators of whether the recovery can develop into a stronger base.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Galaxy Research say Bitcoin's bear market is over?
Galaxy points to a potential June 30 bottom near $76,500, multiple weekly closes above Bitcoin's 50-week moving average, and easing selling pressure.
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How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attract on October 26?
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, ending a two-day outflow streak. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for nearly all the gains.
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What selling pressures have eased in Bitcoin?
Galaxy said long-term holder distribution has declined, while macro traders and basis-focused funds have reduced exposure. Asset managers' net-long CME Bitcoin futures positions have also fallen from previous highs.
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What price level is critical for Bitcoin's recovery?
The $75,800-$76,500 region is the immediate test because it sits around Bitcoin's 50-week moving average. A sustained weekly close below it would weaken Galaxy's assessment.
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Are institutional crypto flows broadly bullish?
No. Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive, but U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows during the same session, showing demand remains uneven.
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