TheBlock
Bitwise raised its 10-year Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, projecting a 34.3% compound annual growth rate through 2036. That compares with average forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity. The asset manager's base case assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets.
Why it matters
Bitwise’s revised outlook reflects larger estimates for the markets Bitcoin could compete in, not higher market-share assumptions. It now puts the 2036 store-of-value market at $110 trillion, up from $91 trillion, and the institutional investment market at $303 trillion, up from $216 trillion.
The firm cites estimates that institutional investors control roughly $147 trillion in assets. A 1% to 5% Bitcoin allocation over the next decade would imply $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand. Bitwise contrasts that with about $14 billion in new Bitcoin supply from mining per year. It also notes that 20.1 million BTC, or 95.7% of the 21 million maximum supply, is already in circulation.
Market impact
The forecast spans a wide range: Bitwise’s bear case puts Bitcoin at $130,686 in 2036, while its bull case reaches $3.67 million. The firm also expects average volatility to decline to 27.8% over the coming decade, from 32.9% in its previous report, while warning that sharp downturns will remain possible.
Bitwise points to a roughly 53% drawdown from an October 2025 high above $126,000, smaller than the 86%, 84% and 77% declines following the 2013, 2017 and 2021 highs. CIO Matt Hougan said institutions continued adding Bitcoin exposure during the downturn, even as ETF purchases slowed and much of the recent demand for store-of-value assets flowed to gold. The forecast’s central test is whether institutional allocations and Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market keep growing.
Frequently asked questions
-
What assumptions underpin Bitwise’s $1.6 million Bitcoin target?
The base case assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036.
-
How does Bitwise’s projected Bitcoin return compare with other asset classes?
Bitwise projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, compared with average forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity.
-
What are Bitwise’s bear and bull cases for Bitcoin in 2036?
The bear case puts Bitcoin at $130,686, while the bull case reaches $3.67 million.
-
Why does Bitwise expect institutional demand to matter for Bitcoin?
The firm cites roughly $147 trillion in institutional assets and estimates a 1% to 5% Bitcoin allocation could represent $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand.
-
Does Bitwise expect Bitcoin to become less volatile?
Yes. Bitwise projects average volatility of 27.8% over the next decade, down from 32.9% in its previous report, while cautioning that sharp downturns will remain possible.
CoinDesk
Crypto Rank News
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
Crypto News
Whale Alert
Lookonchain