CryptoSlate
Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $87,000 on Oct. 2 after buyers broke through a sell wall around $85,000 that had stalled earlier advances. Glassnode said some orders were filled and others withdrawn, leaving fewer visible asks immediately above. The rally then encountered fresh resistance near $87,000, with holder cost bases and options positions clustering between $88,000 and $100,000.
Why it matters
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend bands are contracting again, echoing two episodes in 2025 that preceded sharp gains. That is a bullish precedent, not a reliable forecast: two earlier occurrences are too few to establish a predictive pattern.
The broader setup has improved. Bitwise says Bitcoin has reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, a market mean around $77,000 and the estimated spot ETF investor cost basis near $83,000. Yet CryptoQuant estimates that holders who bought 18 months to two years ago have an average cost near $88,350, while the six-to-12-month cohort’s average is around $89,200. Some may sell as they approach breakeven, testing whether buyers can absorb returning supply.
Market impact
Bitwise identifies $90,000 and $95,000 as the next short-term holder valuation levels. Bitcoin has traded above them on about 3.8% and 1.7% of days, respectively, in its historical sample. Deribit data show roughly $2.1 billion in Bitcoin call exposure at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000. Those positions show demand for upside exposure, though their effect on spot trading depends on expiration dates and dealer hedging.
Open interest rose from about $52 billion at September’s end to roughly $56.2 billion in the first two days of October. Rising funding makes leveraged longs costlier to hold if the rally reverses. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report also lowered Treasury yields and eased immediate rate-hike concerns. For Bitcoin, the near-term test is whether buying can carry it through $90,000; Bitwise places the average ETF investor cost basis near $83,000 as a key downside level.
Frequently asked questions
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What happened to the sell orders around $85,000?
Glassnode said some orders were filled and others withdrawn as Bitcoin broke through the level. That left fewer visible asks immediately above $85,000.
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Why could holders sell as Bitcoin approaches $90,000?
CryptoQuant estimates average purchase costs near $88,350 and $89,200 for two holder groups. Investors who have been underwater may choose to exit as prices approach their cost basis.
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What does the renewed accumulation pattern indicate?
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend bands are contracting, as they did before two sharp gains in 2025. Those two precedents are too few to make the pattern a reliable forecast.
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How much Bitcoin call exposure is concentrated between $90,000 and $100,000?
Deribit data show about $2.1 billion at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000. Their spot-market effect depends on expiration dates and dealer hedging.
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What levels matter if Bitcoin’s rally stalls?
Bitwise identifies $90,000 and $95,000 as valuation hurdles. On a reversal, it places the average spot ETF investor cost basis near $83,000 as a key downside level.
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