CryptoSlate
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $79,730 before recovering to around $82,000 as US producer inflation accelerated and crypto markets saw $939.24 million in liquidations. CoinGlass counted 176,506 traders liquidated, including a $12 million BTC-USDT position on Binance. Traders also cut the implied odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Christmas to 9.7%, from 12.5%.
Why it matters
September producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, the largest increase since March 2022, while annual wholesale inflation reached 6.3%, its highest level in nearly four years. Core producer prices rose 0.7%, above the 0.3% expected. The figures added to concern that persistent inflation could keep the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike risk alive, even as markets weigh weakness in technology stocks and the broader economy.
Rate expectations remain unsettled: futures briefly priced in nearly a 50% chance of an October hike after consumer inflation data, then fell below 30% despite the producer-price surprise. The 10-year Treasury yield also declined to around 5.06% as investors sought safety, showing the competing forces shaping market expectations.
Market impact
Options traders have increased downside protection. The implied probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by Friday’s expiry nearly doubled to 18.4% from 9.5%. About $1.3 billion in positions are due to expire Friday, with put exposure concentrated between $76,000 and $80,000.
The larger event is Oct. 30, when roughly 140,000 BTC options contracts worth nearly $12 billion expire. A concentration of about 25,000 BTC in calls sits at the $95,000 strike, while the month-end book’s maximum-pain level is near $78,000. These positions could shape hedging flows as Bitcoin approaches key strikes, leaving the $80,000 area and the Fed’s next signals in focus.
Frequently asked questions
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How many traders were liquidated during Bitcoin’s drop?
CoinGlass counted 176,506 traders liquidated, with total crypto liquidations of $939.24 million.
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What did September producer inflation signal for Fed policy?
Annual producer inflation reached 6.3%, while core producer prices rose 0.7%, above the 0.3% expected. The data added to concern about further Fed tightening.
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How did traders’ near-term Bitcoin downside odds change?
The implied probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by Friday’s expiry nearly doubled to 18.4% from 9.5%.
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What is significant about the Oct. 30 Bitcoin options expiry?
Roughly 140,000 BTC options contracts worth nearly $12 billion are scheduled to expire, about one-third of outstanding Bitcoin options positions on Deribit.
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Which Bitcoin options strikes are drawing attention?
Put exposure for Friday’s expiry is concentrated between $76,000 and $80,000. The larger month-end book has call concentration near $95,000 and a maximum-pain level near $78,000.
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