CryptoSlate
Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio fell below 1.2, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1B in combined net withdrawals across five consecutive sessions. Farside Investors logged $185M of outflows on Nov. 13, while a Nov. 15 price snapshot showed Bitcoin at $65,461, down 14.85% over 7 days and 20.72% over 30 days. The valuation decline is substantial, but the demand data has yet to confirm that buyers are absorbing available supply.
Why it matters
Darkfost described the sub-1.2 reading as the third trigger of his valuation preset during the 2026 bear market. His preset has been adjusted over time to reflect MVRV's long-term decline, and the available alerts do not include a threshold-change history or reproducible backtest showing what followed previous signals. The signal therefore points to lower aggregate valuation, not a confirmed market bottom.
A separate CryptoQuant note from XWIN Japan placed SOPR near 0.98, indicating that the measured spent outputs moved at an aggregate loss. The note did not identify the SOPR variant or exact observation time, limiting comparisons with other readings. MVRV and SOPR also measure different things: both use historical movement information, but neither establishes that every transfer represented current market buying or an exchange sale.
Market impact
The ETF data remains the clearest near-term demand test. Five sessions of withdrawals removed capital from one established source of Bitcoin demand, and continued redemptions would weaken the case that the lower valuation is attracting recurring buyers.
XWIN Japan argued that a stronger recovery would combine SOPR holding above 1 with renewed spot demand, ETF inflows and healthier liquidity. Nvidia's scheduled Nov. 17 results add a risk test because its results could influence appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The confirming signal would be improving spent-output profitability alongside returning spot buying and ETF inflows, rather than another valuation alert by itself.
Frequently asked questions
-
What does Bitcoin's MVRV falling below 1.2 mean?
It means Bitcoin's aggregate market value has fallen close to its realized value, which was last calculated at the prices when coins moved. It indicates lower valuation, but it does not prove a durable bottom.
-
How much did US spot Bitcoin ETFs lose across five sessions?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1B in combined net outflows across five consecutive sessions through Nov. 13. Farside Investors logged $185M of withdrawals on Nov. 13 alone.
-
Why is Bitcoin's MVRV alert not a confirmed bottom signal?
Darkfost's valuation preset has been adjusted over time, and no reproducible threshold history or backtest shows how prior alerts performed. Three alerts during a bear market do not establish three durable bottoms.
-
What does a SOPR reading near 0.98 indicate?
SOPR near 0.98 indicates that the measured Bitcoin outputs moved at an aggregate loss. It does not prove that every transfer was an exchange sale, and the reading's variant and observation time were not specified.
-
What would confirm that Bitcoin buyers are absorbing supply?
Confirmation would require improving SOPR alongside renewed spot buying, ETF inflows and healthier liquidity. A lower MVRV reading without stronger demand would remain a valuation signal rather than proof of a recovery.
Crypto Capital Venture
TheBlock
CoinTelegraph
WuBlockchain
Crypto Rank News
CoinDesk