CryptoSlate
Bitcoin faces a potential decline toward $70,000 after stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion in 30 days and apparent demand fell by 284,000 BTC. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows across 20 trading sessions, adding to the pressure on a market struggling to attract fresh capital.
Why it matters
Glassnode's Nov. 11 report put the 30-day stablecoin supply contraction at its sharpest since June 2022. Separately, CryptoQuant found that Tether's USDT market capitalization had fallen $6.6 billion over 60 days, more than twice its decline after FTX's collapse in December 2022.
CryptoQuant's apparent demand measure, which estimates the balance between available supply and market absorption, fell to its weakest level since March 28, 2025. The Coinbase Premium Index remained negative for 30 consecutive days, averaging approximately minus 0.14%, a sign of weak US buying. Earlier negative readings have also occurred during downturns followed by recoveries.
Market impact
Bitcoin traded near $74,600 when the research was compiled. Coins held for one to three months had an average acquisition price near $79,500 and an unrealized loss of 6%, according to CryptoQuant. A 12% loss at that cost basis would put Bitcoin near $70,000, roughly 6% below the reference price.
Glassnode estimated the broader short-term holder cost basis at $75,600, with only 35% of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days still profitable. A rebound toward acquisition levels could prompt some holders to sell at breakeven, adding resistance to a recovery.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is $70,000 a level of concern for Bitcoin?
CryptoQuant puts the average acquisition price for coins held one to three months near $79,500. A 12% unrealized loss at that cost basis would place Bitcoin near $70,000.
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How much has stablecoin supply contracted?
Glassnode recorded a $14.2 billion decline in aggregate stablecoin supply over 30 days, the sharpest contraction since June 2022.
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What does Bitcoin's apparent demand measure indicate?
CryptoQuant's indicator estimates the balance between available supply and market absorption. It fell to negative 284,000 BTC over 30 days, its weakest reading since March 28, 2025.
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How have US Bitcoin ETFs and the Coinbase premium changed?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows across 20 trading sessions. The Coinbase Premium Index was negative for 30 consecutive days, averaging approximately minus 0.14%.
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Why might $75,600 matter if Bitcoin rebounds?
Glassnode puts the broader short-term holder cost basis near $75,600. Some investors could sell near their purchase prices to break even, adding resistance to a recovery.
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