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Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with gold has climbed to roughly +0.50, its highest reading since the 2020 pandemic shock and more than double where it sat at the start of the year, according to Bitwise Asset Management data cited by The Kobeissi Letter. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has slipped to about +0.30, its weakest in a year.
Why it matters
The Kobeissi Letter pinned the rotation to the U.S. Treasury's Aug 19 announcement that it would at least double its long-dated Treasury buyback limit from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The read: investors are increasingly pricing Bitcoin and gold as parallel hedges against currency debasement rather than treating BTC as a high-beta tech proxy.
Market impact
A Bitcoin that moves with gold instead of with growth equities rewrites the allocator playbook. Allocators who previously dismissed BTC as too correlated to risk-on tech flows now have a fresh macro case to slot it alongside their gold sleeve. The compression in Nasdaq correlation, combined with the expansion in gold correlation, also matches the post-2024 pattern of BTC underperforming when the QQQ rallies.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Bitcoin's current correlation with gold?
Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with gold sits at roughly +0.50, the highest reading since the 2020 pandemic shock and more than double where it stood at the start of the year.
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Why is Bitcoin's correlation with gold rising?
The Kobeissi Letter pinned the move to the U.S. Treasury's Aug 19 announcement doubling long-dated Treasury buyback limits from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, which has investors pricing both Bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency debasement.
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How correlated is Bitcoin with the Nasdaq right now?
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to about +0.30, its weakest level in a year, the opposite direction from its gold correlation.
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What does the Bitcoin-gold correlation shift mean for portfolios?
Allocators who previously dismissed Bitcoin as too correlated to risk-on tech now have a fresh macro case to slot it alongside their gold sleeve, treating both as parallel stores of value rather than BTC as a high-beta proxy.
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When did Bitcoin last trade with gold this closely?
The +0.50 reading is the highest since the 2020 pandemic shock, and more than double where Bitcoin's gold correlation sat at the start of the year.
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