Bitcoin Holds Above $85,000 as ETF Demand Faces a Test

Bitcoin traded at $85,276 on Sunday, up 0.83% over 24 hours but below the $86,000 area reached before the US jobs report. Glassnode’s post-payroll study found the strongest burst of forced buying came before the release: $50 million in short liquidations over 10 minutes on Oct. 2. Bitcoin then fell more than 1% from its immediate pre-report level. Meanwhile, the odds of another quarter-point Federal Reserve hike at the Oct. 28 meeting dropped from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2.

Why it matters

The sequence leaves a key question for the recovery: whether demand can hold after short sellers have covered. Open interest rose $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before payrolls, then fell $1.5 billion after continuing to climb for about an hour following the release. That tracks a build-up and subsequent pullback in futures exposure, but does not establish what caused the reversal.

Spot ETF flows offer a separate demand signal. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $102 million in net inflows on Oct. 1, after redemptions the previous day. That was before payrolls, so it does not show whether investors kept buying after the report. Glassnode’s Sept. 30 study also put combined spot-exchange and US spot-ETF trading volume near $6.4 billion a day, close to the bottom of its range since the ETFs launched.

Market impact

Lower odds of another Fed hike may support Bitcoin, but they do not mean a rate cut is imminent. The Fed’s latest decision, on Sept. 16, raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%. September payrolls added 29,000 jobs and unemployment was 4.2%, both described by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as little changed. Glassnode also noted that short-term yields fell while the 10-year yield rose, with the latter near 5.2%, leaving longer-term borrowing costs elevated.

The next US ETF sessions will show whether fund buying continued after payrolls; a completed Friday flow figure would clarify the immediate response. Repeated inflows and broader spot activity would strengthen evidence of follow-through above $85,000. Further rejection below the pre-payroll area without those signals would leave the recovery’s demand base in question.