CoinDesk
Bitcoin miners racing to reinvent themselves as AI infrastructure providers face a near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion and long-term capital needs of up to $221 billion, according to a new VanEck report. The asset manager argues the market is moving past excitement over contract announcements and toward a harder question: can these companies actually build and finance the data centers their AI clients need?
Why it matters
VanEck analysts Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel note that the sector has delivered only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing capacity it has already leased to customers. "Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium," the pair wrote, warning that companies missing construction milestones risk "structural de-ratings" from investors. The shift follows a dramatic decline in mining profitability after the 2024 halving, which pushed operators including Core Scientific, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Iren, and Cipher Mining toward AI workloads. Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark are pursuing hybrid strategies.
Market impact
Despite BTC falling roughly 24% since January, miner stocks have surged on the AI narrative — RIOT is up nearly 94% year-to-date and CIFR is 62% higher. VanEck now says valuations will hinge on "energized power" and tenant quality, with operators serving investment-grade hyperscalers commanding multiples above 10x energized power. HIVE, Bitdeer, and IREN are flagged as names with upside potential on new contract wins, while MARA, CLSK, and RIOT remain more tightly coupled to BTC price performance.
Frequently asked questions
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Why have bitcoin miner stocks risen sharply even as BTC prices fell in 2025?
Investors have re-rated miners on their AI infrastructure potential rather than mining profitability. Stocks like RIOT and CIFR surged 94% and 62% year-to-date respectively as the sector pivoted toward AI and HPC data center contracts following the 2024 halving.
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What does VanEck mean by 'energized power' as a valuation metric?
Energized power refers to operational power infrastructure a miner already has online and available. VanEck says companies with signed AI leases backed by functioning infrastructure command valuation multiples above 10x energized power, while those pitching future projects trade at lower multiples.
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Which bitcoin miners does VanEck flag as most exposed to execution risk?
VanEck suggests MARA, CLSK, and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin's price performance, while HIVE, Bitdeer, and IREN are identified as names with potential upside if they can secure additional AI contracts and demonstrate on-time data center delivery.
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Benjamin Cowen
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