Bitcoin traded near $62,000 on Saturday, its lowest level since Aug. 19 and more than 25% below its September high after falling roughly 14% in a week. More than $900M in Bitcoin longs were liquidated in a single day, including nearly $560M within four hours, while about $1B exited spot Bitcoin ETFs. Anthropic is preparing an IPO of 825M shares priced at $70 to $78 each, worth up to $64.4B, with trading scheduled for Thursday on Nasdaq under ENT.
Why it matters
The drawdown is unfolding as markets prepare to absorb another mega-cap IPO. The bullish case comes from comparing the move with SpaceX, which raised $75B in the largest IPO ever. Bitcoin fell 19% into that listing, bottomed 18 days afterward and was 28% above its IPO-day close after 100 days. Bitcoin is now down 22% heading into Anthropic's offering.
Matt Cole of Strive, which holds more than 26,000 Bitcoin, projects that a similar path could put Bitcoin near $90,000 by late February. The comparison is explicitly speculative because it relies on one precedent and Cole is not neutral. The backdrop is also tougher, with traders assigning about 90% odds to a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike on Dec. 9 as inflation remains above 6%.
Market impact
Bitcoin's immediate technical position is fragile. It is below the 200-week moving average near $68,000, while its daily RSI is near 23 and its risk model reads 15. The key downside level is just under $63,000. A weekly close back above $68,000 after Anthropic begins trading would strengthen the rebound case, while a break below $63,000 by Dec. 7 would weaken it.
ETF flows provide the second confirmation signal. A return to inflows after this week's roughly $1B withdrawal would suggest that institutional demand is stabilizing, but persistent outflows would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to further leverage-driven selling. The SpaceX analogy places a potential low around Dec. 7 and 100 days after the Nov. 19 listing on Feb. 27, framing the next three weeks as a high-volatility test rather than a reliable bottom call.
Frequently asked questions
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How much selling hit Bitcoin before Anthropic's IPO?
More than $900M in Bitcoin longs were liquidated in one day, including nearly $560M in four hours, and about $1B exited spot Bitcoin ETFs during the week.
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How large is Anthropic's IPO and when does it trade?
Anthropic is selling 825M shares at $70 to $78 each, worth up to $64.4B. Pricing is set for Wednesday, with Nasdaq trading scheduled for Thursday under the ticker ENT.
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What did the SpaceX comparison show about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin fell 19% into SpaceX's IPO, bottomed 18 days after the listing and was 28% above its IPO-day close after 100 days. The comparison is speculative because it relies on one precedent.
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Which Bitcoin price levels matter into December?
Just under $63,000 is the key downside level, while the 200-week moving average near $68,000 is the key recovery marker. A weekly close above $68,000 would support the rebound case.
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What would confirm or weaken the Bitcoin rebound case?
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and a reclaim of the 200-week average would strengthen the case. Persistent ETF outflows, a break below $63,000 or a hawkish Fed decision would increase downside risk.
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