Bitcoin is trading in a tightening range between the 200-week moving average below and the bear market resistance band above, with neither level broken durably since the February low. Into the Cryptoverse host Benjamin Cowan argues the setup mirrors 2018 almost beat for beat: a February low, a May high, a summer retest, and a July countertrend rally that historically gives back its gains into August and September.
Citing monthly returns in prior midterm years, Cowan noted 2026 is up roughly 9% in July so far, against 20% in 2022 and nearly 40% in 2018. The comparison matters because every prior midterm year printed a green July only to roll over in the August to September window, with the eventual cycle bottom forming after a 10 to 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 dragged Bitcoin lower.
Why it matters
The baseline call is that the four-year cycle still holds and Bitcoin resolves the range to the downside later in the year. Cowan tied the expected breakdown to a seasonal equity top in August or September, a stock market correction of 10 to 20%, and a Q4 liquidity event that resets the on-chain indicators that have not yet triggered. The 2018 analogy is doing real work: from the June low, the 20-week moving average is only about 20% above the range floor, compared to roughly 40% in 2018, which Cowan reads as a less volatile but structurally similar setup.
If Bitcoin fails to break lower by year-end, the framework pivots to time-based capitulation and a renewed bull case. The biggest counterpoint, by Cowan's own admission, is that the 2025 top formed on apathy, leaving fewer forced sellers for a traditional washout. The only historical analogue for an apathetic top is 2019, which ultimately bottomed on a black swan pandemic shock rather than a clean on-chain reset.
Market impact
For positioning, the read is that any July strength is likely a countertrend bounce rather than the start of a new leg up, with the window for Bitcoin to stay strong closing within two to four weeks. The invalidation level is explicit: a clean push and hold above the bear market resistance band into the back half of the year would force a pivot to the bull thesis. Until then, the path of least resistance is a return to the 200-week moving average and a decisive break, with the cycle bottom forming only after the S&P 500 completes its seasonal drawdown.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the bear market resistance band and why does it matter for Bitcoin?
It is a long-term moving-average band that has historically capped Bitcoin's recovery attempts after cyclical bear markets. Cowan argues BTC keeps getting rejected at it, while the 200-week moving average below continues to hold, creating a range that resolves only when one level breaks.
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What monthly returns does Cowan cite for midterm years?
July has historically been green in midterm years, with 2026 up roughly 9%, 2022 up 20%, and 2018 up nearly 40%, while the surrounding May and June months were deeply negative and the August to September window gave those gains back.
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What would invalidate the bearish seasonal thesis for Bitcoin?
A clean push and hold above the bear market resistance band into the back half of 2026 would force a pivot to the bull case. Without that, Cowan expects a return to the 200-week moving average and a decisive breakdown.
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Why is an apathetic 2025 top a counterpoint to the four-year cycle?
Cycle bottoms typically form after forced selling resets on-chain indicators, but the 2025 top formed on apathy, leaving fewer traditional sellers. The only historical analogue is 2019, which ultimately bottomed on a black swan pandemic shock rather than a clean on-chain reset.
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