Bitcoin is testing a dense confluence of technical support around $68,000 — a level that includes a key Fibonacci retracement, a long-term blue trend line extending back to the all-time high, and the macro neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern first identified in September 2024. With roughly 9-10 hours left on the daily candle at the time of the analysis, the close will be decisive: a confirmed break below flips the next meaningful target to the low $60,000s.
Why it matters
The bearish pressure is unfolding against a backdrop of historically low risk scores. Bitcoin's proprietary risk model sits at 20 — nearly in the "teens" accumulation zone — while Ethereum registers 16, with several major altcoins (Cardano at 12, others in the mid-teens) already there. The analyst draws a direct parallel to 182 days post-quantitative-tightening in the 2019-2020 cycle, when altcoin market cap risk scores were at 14; today they sit at 15. At comparable readings, Bitcoin price was higher 72% of the time after 3 months and 100% of the time after one year.
Market impact
Bitcoin dominance has held stubbornly flat near its September-October 2024 range despite the volatility, and the analyst flags a possible final push higher in dominance before a rotation into altcoins — echoing the November 2020 playbook. The altcoin market cap (ex-BTC) is testing its own Fibonacci support around $956B-$980B, with a deeper failsafe zone near $900B-$936B. The 200-week moving average remains intact for now, but a break below it would historically mark capitulation rather than cycle end — the 2022 bottom being the clearest precedent.
Benjamin Cowen
WatcherGuru
Crypto News
CoinTelegraph