CryptoSlate
Bitcoin has lost a compounded 3.24% during US stock-market hours since Sept. 21, while prices outside that window advanced 6.07%, according to a CryptoSlate analysis of Binance BTC/USDT trading. CryptoQuant's Coinbase Premium Gap has fallen to -$64, meaning BTC trades at a discount on the US-focused exchange relative to Binance, the largest global venue. Glassnode said this week that Bitcoin's net gains since Sept. 21 have come largely outside the American session, a reversal from an earlier stretch when US trading hours drove the advance.
Why it matters
The headline loss overstates the damage. Across 13 Wall Street cash sessions, Bitcoin fell in eight, but the largest declines came on just two dates: Sept. 30 (-1.86%) and Oct. 2 (-2.65%). Remove those two sessions and the remaining 11 produce a compounded 1.28% gain. Coinbase's own dollar-pair data shows a similar pattern, declining about 4.85% from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. over the period, so the timing signal is consistent across venues even though the identity of the sellers is not resolved.
The result is also sensitive to where the session clock starts. A 9 a.m. start produces a 4.94% compounded loss, and a 10 a.m. start a 5.41% decline, meaning even the mild positive remainder depends on the exact 9:30 a.m. boundary.
Market impact
ETF flows cut against a simple institutional-selling story. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $148.7 million of net outflows on Sept. 30, aligning with the first big decline, but drew $189.9 million of inflows on Oct. 2 even as BTC fell 2.65% during Wall Street hours. Outflows then escalated to $484.9 million on Oct. 7. Since in-kind creations and redemptions were permitted for crypto ETFs in 2025, withdrawals can involve transferring Bitcoin rather than an immediate sale, so flows alone cannot pinpoint when coins actually hit the market.
The next several sessions are the test. A sustained negative Coinbase premium alongside building ETF outflows and continued US-session losses would strengthen the case for deteriorating US demand.
Frequently asked questions
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How much has Bitcoin lost during US trading hours?
A compounded 3.24% during the 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. New York window since Sept. 21, while prices outside that window advanced 6.07%, according to CryptoSlate's analysis of Binance BTC/USDT trading.
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What does the -$64 Coinbase Premium Gap mean?
It means Bitcoin trades $64 cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. A sustained negative premium suggests weaker demand or heavier selling on the venue most associated with US investors, though it cannot identify who is actually selling.
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Are US spot Bitcoin ETF flows behind the selling?
Flows complicate that story. ETFs saw $148.7 million of outflows on Sept. 30 but drew $189.9 million of inflows on Oct. 2 even as Bitcoin fell 2.65% during Wall Street hours, then $484.9 million of withdrawals on Oct. 7.
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Why might two sessions matter so much in the data?
The declines on Sept. 30 (-1.86%) and Oct. 2 (-2.65%) account for most of the cumulative loss. Removing them leaves the other 11 sessions with a compounded 1.28% gain, so the pattern is sharper on specific days than a steady slide.
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Could ETF redemptions sell Bitcoin immediately?
Not necessarily. Since in-kind creations and redemptions were allowed for crypto ETFs in 2025, withdrawals can involve transferring Bitcoin rather than an immediate cash sale, which is why flow data alone cannot confirm when coins hit the market.
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