CoinDesk
Crypto fell across the board on Thursday as a hawkish-leaning Federal Reserve overshadowed a signed interim US-Iran deal that lifted equities. Bitcoin traded around $63,900, down 3% over 24 hours but still up 2% on the week, while ether dropped 3.4% to $1,733, XRP fell 3.9% to $1.17 and solana lost 3.6% to $71. Hyperliquid's HYPE — the week's standout gainer — gave back 7.2% to $69, though it remains roughly 28% higher over seven days. Tron was the lone major in the green, up 0.9%.
The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% as expected, but its updated projections pointed to higher inflation and a slower pace of future cuts, with some officials floating the possibility that rates may still need to rise. It was the first decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who said the vote followed rigorous debate and vowed the central bank would deliver price stability.
Why it matters
Stocks shrugged off the Fed and rallied on the Iran deal — S&P 500 futures gained as much as 0.9%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.5% and Brent crude slipped toward $78 a barrel after President Trump signed an interim agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crypto didn't catch that bid, a signal that the market is currently trading the Fed's liquidity signal more than geopolitical relief.
A hawkish Fed tightens financial conditions, and that historically drains the liquidity backdrop risk assets like BTC and ETH rely on. The cross-asset split — equities bid, crypto offered — is the read worth watching: it suggests positioning, not narrative, is the dominant driver right now.
Market impact
Analysts expect bitcoin to stay rangebound. "We expect bitcoin to continue to trade in the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the coming weeks absent any major catalyst," said Gerry O'Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, naming the signing of the CLARITY Act — a crypto market-structure bill — into law or further US-Iran de-escalation as the triggers that could break the range.
The price action reads as consolidation rather than capitulation.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the Fed decide and why did crypto fall?
The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% as expected, but updated projections pointed to higher inflation and slower future cuts, with some officials floating the possibility that rates may still need to rise. Crypto fell on the hawkish signal, while stocks rallied on a separate Trump-signed interim Iran deal.
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Who is Kevin Warsh and why does his first meeting matter?
Kevin Warsh is the new Federal Reserve Chairman. Thursday's rate decision was his first meeting leading the central bank, and he said the vote followed rigorous debate and vowed to deliver price stability — framing the meeting as a hawkish reset on inflation tolerance.
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How much did bitcoin and ether drop on the hawkish Fed?
Bitcoin traded around $63,900, down 3% over 24 hours but still up 2% on the week. Ether fell 3.4% to $1,733, XRP dropped 3.9% to $1.17 and solana lost 3.6% to $71. Hyperliquid's HYPE led declines at -7.2%, while Tron was the lone major in the green at +0.9%.
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What range are analysts expecting for bitcoin?
Hashdex's Gerry O'Shea said he expects bitcoin to continue trading in the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the coming weeks absent a major catalyst. He named the signing of the CLARITY Act — a crypto market-structure bill — into law or further US-Iran de-escalation as potential triggers to break the range.
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What is the CLARITY Act and why is it being watched?
The CLARITY Act is a US crypto market-structure bill. Analysts including Hashdex's Gerry O'Shea cite it as one of the catalysts that could break bitcoin out of its $60K–$70K range, alongside further US-Iran de-escalation.
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