CoinDesk
Bitcoin has dropped to the lower boundary of the Power Law corridor, pushing the Power Law Oscillator to just 4.4% — meaning BTC is priced cheaper than 95.6% of all historical readings relative to its long-term trend. The last times the oscillator reached this depth were the March 2020 pandemic crash and the November 2022 FTX collapse, both of which preceded significant recoveries.
Why it matters
The Power Law model, developed by physicist Giovanni Santostasi and refined by Porkopolis Economics, plots Bitcoin's price against time on a logarithmic scale. Unlike halving-cycle models, it argues that Bitcoin follows a long-term mathematical growth curve that decelerates naturally as the network matures — a pattern observed across complex systems in nature. That framework has contained Bitcoin's price action for over a decade, making the lower boundary a historically meaningful reference point rather than an arbitrary support level.
Market impact
A 4.4% oscillator reading is a rare signal: BTC has been more expensive than this for roughly 19 out of every 20 trading days in its history. Long-term investors treat this zone as one of the deepest structural discounts on record. The model carries no guarantee the floor holds, but the historical precedent — two of the most severe crypto stress events on record both resolved from this level — gives the reading outsized weight for patient capital.
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