CryptoSlate
Roughly $10 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire on June 26, with about 80% of those contracts currently sitting out of the money as Bitcoin trades near $65,000 — well below the max-pain level of $74,000 where dealer positioning is concentrated. By 2025, open interest in Bitcoin options had grown to rival and at times surpass open interest in Bitcoin futures, with the bulk of that exposure now split between BlackRock's IBIT options book, now around $40 billion, and Deribit, which built the professional crypto options market and whose year-end 2025 expiry became the largest on record. The same dynamic is now showing up across traditional finance: US-listed options volume hit 15.2 billion contracts in 2025, up 26% year-over-year, with average daily notional near $4 trillion and retail accounting for more than 30% of contract volume.
Why it matters
Bitcoin and Ethereum have no earnings or dividends, so their valuations lean almost entirely on expectations about the future — and in that environment the derivatives market has taken over price discovery. When traders buy and sell options, dealers hedge their exposure by trading the underlying, which generates real buying and selling pressure. Through late 2025, Bitcoin spent weeks pinned in narrow ranges as dealer positioning bought dips near one strike and sold rallies near another, and the same pattern is visible heading into the June 26 expiry.
Traditional markets are following the same path. Zero-days-to-expiry options now make up more than half of daily S&P 500 index options volume, up from roughly 5% in 2020. Institutions lean on options to hedge rate and equity exposure, and algorithmic strategies increasingly need instruments that express probability distributions rather than directional bets.
Market impact
Prediction markets crossed into the federal derivatives framework in April when a federal appeals court ruled Kalshi's sports-event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Kalshi then closed a $1 billion round led by Coatue at a $22 billion valuation, with annualized trading volume reported above $170 billion.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is the June 26 Bitcoin options expiry so significant?
Roughly $10 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire that day, with about 80% out of the money. Dealers hedging that exposure have been pinning spot BTC near $65,000 — well below the max-pain level near $74,000 — and the gamma effects can amplify moves once spot breaks out of the range.
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How large is BlackRock's IBIT options book?
IBIT's options book has grown to roughly $40 billion, making it one of the two dominant venues for Bitcoin options exposure alongside Deribit, which built the professional crypto options market.
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How does options trading move Bitcoin's spot price?
Dealers on the other side of options contracts hedge their exposure by trading the underlying asset, generating real buying and selling pressure. Through late 2025, that dealer flow kept Bitcoin pinned in narrow ranges, and the derivatives market has at times set the spot price rather than tracked it.
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Are traditional equity markets seeing the same options boom?
Yes. US-listed options volume hit 15.2 billion contracts in 2025, up 26% year-over-year, with average daily notional near $4 trillion. Zero-days-to-expiry options now make up more than half of daily S&P 500 index options volume, up from roughly 5% in 2020.
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How do prediction markets fit into this shift?
In April a federal appeals court ruled that Kalshi's sports-event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, placing prediction markets within the federal derivatives framework. Kalshi subsequently closed a $1 billion Coatue-led round at a $22 billion valuation, with annualized trading volume…
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