CoinDesk
Bitcoin reclaimed $63,000 with a 1.2% gain on Thursday while Nasdaq 100 futures added 2.6% over the past 24 hours, a session where crypto and US equities brushed off US Central Command's announcement that strikes had hit 90 Iranian military targets. The moves come roughly 24 hours after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over, an escalation that triggered only a brief selloff before crypto bounced from oversold territory. ETH added 0.75% to follow BTC's lead, and the rebound extends a rally that has lifted BTC 9% above June's monthly close.
Why it matters
The resilience is the story. Geopolitical shocks typically hit risk assets in two waves: first the spot liquidation, then the sustained de-risking as macro investors pull hedges. Thursday delivered only the first. Crypto futures open interest has stayed steady near $106 billion, and 24-hour volume actually fell almost 20% to $191 billion, a sign traders are not rushing to rebuild leveraged exposure into the event.
That reluctance is also visible in the options market. BTC and ETH 30-day implied volatility indexes snapped a two-day climb, and Deribit puts remain pricier than calls across every timeframe, the opposite of the S&P 500 skew, where call demand has hit record levels. Translation: crypto desks are still paying for downside cover while equity traders lean bullish.
Market impact
Altcoin exposure is selectively working. LIT and ETHFI led Thursday with 5.6% and 8.5% gains respectively, extending monthly advances near 35%. ENA tacked on another 5.6%, though the token still trades 91% below its September 2025 peak, a reminder that the altcoin rally is concentrated in DeFi names rather than the broad complex.
CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index ticked to 47/100, directionally up but range-bound, a market still waiting on BTC and ETH to confirm before rotating wider. Watch the $106 billion futures OI level: a sustained build there would mark the return of leverage and, with it, the kind of fragility that turns a geopolitical headline into a real drawdown.
Frequently asked questions
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How is crypto reacting to the US airstrikes on Iran?
Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $63,000 and ETH added 0.75% on Thursday, recovering from a brief selloff after CENTCOM said it struck 90 Iranian military targets. Markets are treating the escalation as a sideshow rather than a structural risk event.
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Why are crypto futures traders not rebuilding leverage after the strikes?
Aggregate crypto futures open interest held near $106 billion even as 24-hour volume fell almost 20% to $191 billion. The steady OI alongside falling volume indicates investors are unwilling to take on leveraged positions during a live geopolitical event.
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What does the BTC and ETH options skew say about sentiment?
On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls across every timeframe, indicating traders are still paying for downside protection. The S&P 500 skew is the opposite, with call demand at record highs, showing crypto and equity desks are pricing risk very differently.
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Which altcoins led gains on Thursday?
LIT rose 5.6% and ETHFI climbed 8.5%, extending monthly advances near 35%. ENA added 5.6% as well, though it still trades more than 91% below its September 2025 peak.
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Is the Altcoin Season Index signaling a broader altcoin rally?
CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index ticked up one point to 47/100 on Thursday but remains range-bound. Investors are holding back on wider altcoin exposure until BTC and ETH confirm a more decisive recovery.
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