Glassnode
Bitcoin staged a relief bounce from lows near $60,000 as options markets unwound fear and taker aggression flipped positive. Perpetual CVD reversed from -$770M to +$182M while Spot CVD moved from -$205M toward breakeven, and the Volatility Spread collapsed 85% in a single week, from 27.71% to 4.07%. The 25-Delta Skew eased from 19.07% to 15.99% as demand for downside hedges faded. RSI climbed 94.8% off extreme oversold territory, settling at 29.1 — constructive, but still pinned near its lower statistical band.
Why it matters
The bounce is happening on a thinner market, not a stronger one. Spot volume fell 40.4% to $5.8B, futures open interest slipped another 3% to $30.6B, and ETF trade volume dropped 38.1% to $11.1B. Long-side funding payments fell 22.3% over the week. ETF net outflows improved 65.5% but remained negative at -$465M, and the Realized P/L ratio improved 46% with NUPL narrowing 14% — both still in net-loss territory. Profitability is stressed: just 50.8% of supply is held in the money, below the 55.1% lower band, which suppresses seller pressure but extends the duration of investor stress.
Market impact
The structural picture is one of base-building, not reversal. Active addresses fell 6.3%, entity-adjusted transfer volume dropped 38.8% to $3.9B, and Realized Cap Change deepened to -1.3%, signaling capital continues to exit. The constructive read sits in supply composition: Hot Capital Share and the STH-to-LTH ratio have both broken below their lower bounds, meaning recent-vintage supply has been largely flushed and the holder base is shifting toward longer-term ownership. ETF MVRV has crept back above 1.0 to 1.06. The missing catalysts for confirmation are conviction buying, volume re-engagement, and a derivatives footprint that stops contracting — until then, this is a consolidation shelf being built under price.
Source: [BTC Market Pulse: Week 25 — Glassnode Research – Digital Asset Market Intelligence](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-25/)
Frequently asked questions
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What is the key signal in the Week 25 BTC market pulse?
Taker aggression flipped constructive — Perpetual CVD reversed from -$770M to +$182M — while tail-risk hedging unwound sharply, with the Volatility Spread collapsing 85% to 4.07% and the 25-Delta Skew easing from 19.07% to 15.99%.
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Why is the BTC bounce not yet a confirmed reversal?
Spot volume fell 40.4% to $5.8B, futures open interest slipped another 3% to $30.6B, ETF trade volume dropped 38.1% to $11.1B, and ETF net outflows stayed negative at -$465M — the move is being driven by covering, not fresh conviction.
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What does the supply composition shift imply for BTC?
Hot Capital Share and the STH-to-LTH ratio both broke below their lower bounds, meaning recent-vintage supply has been largely flushed and the holder base is shifting toward longer-term ownership — typically a constructive structural setup once demand returns.
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How stressed is BTC holder profitability right now?
Just 50.8% of circulating supply is held in profit, below the 55.1% lower statistical band. The Realized P/L ratio improved 46% and NUPL narrowed 14%, but both remain in net-loss territory, extending the duration of investor stress.
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What catalysts are missing to confirm a BTC trend reversal?
The Glassnode report flags conviction buying, volume re-engagement, and a derivatives footprint that stops contracting as the missing pieces — until those return, the move off the $60K low is characterized as a consolidation base, not a confirmed reversal.
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