CoinDesk
Bitcoin has spent five consecutive months trading below the cost to produce it, JPMorgan said in a research note, a stretch that is squeezing miners and forcing some to liquidate holdings. The bank pegs the cost to mine one bitcoin at roughly $78,000, well above the $62,500 the asset currently trades at, and estimates that about 20% of the network is now operating at a loss based on CoinShares data.
The pressure is showing in miner balance sheets. Publicly listed miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs — more than they offloaded in all of 2025 combined. That forced selling is itself a headwind for price, and JPMorgan says the sensitivity of network difficulty to price has climbed as more operators sit near breakeven and flip machines on and off in response to small moves.
Why it matters
Mining cost is a self-correcting price floor in theory: when bitcoin trades below it, higher-cost miners power down, hashrate falls, and mining difficulty automatically resets lower. That mechanism played out in early June, when difficulty dropped roughly 10% — the second decline of that size this year. JPMorgan expects the adjustments to keep getting larger and more frequent for as long as price stays below production cost.
The bank is also flagging the contrarian read. Falling exchange reserves, steady whale accumulation, and miner capitulation have all pointed the same way this month — historically, that kind of convergence is what marks a cycle bottom rather than the start of a deeper leg down.
Market impact
For the market, the operative question is how long distressed miners can keep selling. At $62,500 against a $78,000 production cost, every week the gap persists is another week of structural supply hitting the order book. Watch the public-miner BTC treasury disclosures for Q2 — the pace of sales relative to production is the cleanest read on whether the worst of the capitulation is behind the sector or still ahead.
Frequently asked questions
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How much does it cost to mine one bitcoin right now?
JPMorgan estimates the cost to produce one bitcoin at roughly $78,000, based on current network difficulty and prevailing energy costs. That is well above the $62,500 the asset has been trading at.
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What share of bitcoin miners are currently losing money?
JPMorgan, citing CoinShares data, estimates that about 20% of the network is operating at a loss at current prices, since most miners' production cost sits above the spot price.
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How much bitcoin did public miners sell in Q1?
Publicly listed miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs, JPMorgan said — a figure that exceeds what the cohort offloaded in all of 2025 combined.
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How does the network adjust when price drops below mining cost?
Higher-cost miners power down, total network hashrate falls, and the protocol automatically resets mining difficulty lower. That adjustment played out in early June with a roughly 10% difficulty drop, the second decline of that size this year.
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Why is JPMorgan framing miner distress as a possible bullish signal?
The bank notes that miner capitulation is now converging with falling exchange reserves and steady whale accumulation — a combination that has historically marked cycle bottoms rather than the start of deeper drawdowns.
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