CoinDesk
Bitcoin's roughly 30% rebound from the early February lows under $63,000 to over $80,000 has not been evenly distributed across the trading day. Three months of price data from Velo show returns clustering tightly around specific hours and days, with APAC and U.S. sessions doing the bulk of the work while Europe lagged meaningfully behind.
Why it matters
For active traders, the data reframes the rally as a series of recurring windows rather than a smooth trend. The APAC session, covering 00:00–08:00 UTC, produced about 13% of the move; the U.S. session, 16:00–00:00 UTC, added 11.5%; Europe contributed just 6.5%. The U.S. share is the more striking shift — it was flat-to-negative through February and March before flipping decisively positive in early April, the moment APAC's lead began to broaden into a two-session pattern.
The hourly view sharpens the picture. The 00:00–01:00 UTC candle — sitting at the seam between late U.S. and early APAC liquidity — has been the strongest single hour, averaging roughly 0.10% per session. The 15:00 UTC hour, deep in Europe's afternoon, ranks second. The 06:00 UTC candle is the weakest.
Market impact
The day-of-week read is the cleanest signal in the dataset. Monday has averaged about 1.5% returns over the past three months — more than double Wednesday's 0.65%, with Friday mildly positive at around 0.3%. Thursday is the worst day, averaging roughly negative 0.55%. Weekdays overall average around positive 0.4% while weekends average negative 0.25%, giving bulls a clear if narrow edge in how they sequence entries.
The structural caveat: a three-month window from the February lows is short, and the patterns are descriptive rather than predictive. Liquidity timing, not calendar magic, is what the data is showing — APAC and U.S. venues remain where the marginal price discovery happens, and the windows when that liquidity is freshest have been the windows where $BTC has moved most consistently higher.
Frequently asked questions
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Which trading session has driven most of Bitcoin's recent rally?
The APAC session (00:00–08:00 UTC) led with about 13% of the move, the U.S. session (16:00–00:00 UTC) added 11.5%, and Europe contributed just 6.5%, according to Velo's three-month dataset.
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What is the strongest single hour for Bitcoin returns?
The 00:00–01:00 UTC candle has been the strongest hour, averaging around 0.10% per session. It sits at the seam between late U.S. and early APAC liquidity, when fresh orders enter the book.
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Which day of the week has been best for Bitcoin over the past three months?
Monday has been the strongest day by a wide margin, averaging about 1.5% returns. Wednesday ranks second at roughly 0.65%, while Thursday is the worst day at around negative 0.55%.
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Has the U.S. trading session always led Bitcoin's gains?
No. U.S. hours were mostly flat-to-negative through February and March, then flipped decisively positive in early April — the point at which APAC's lead broadened into a two-session pattern.
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How reliable is this hourly and day-of-week pattern?
It's descriptive, not predictive. The dataset covers only three months from the February lows, so the pattern reflects where marginal liquidity has been concentrating rather than a durable calendar effect.
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