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Brian Armstrong, Coinbase's chief executive, says the CLARITY Act has a “great chance of passing” and expects it to clear more than 60 votes. He says both sides have “90% of what they want,” presenting the bill as a compromise even as Kalshi prices its passage odds at 22%.
Why it matters
The split captures two competing reads on US crypto policy. Armstrong sees enough common ground for Congress to act, while Kalshi reflects a much lower probability of passage. The gap itself is the signal: Coinbase is projecting political momentum that the prediction market does not reflect. A congressional framework would give the industry a law-based route to clearer rules rather than relying only on agency action.
Market impact
Armstrong says that if the bill fails, he still commends the CFTC and SEC chairs for pushing forward with clear rules. That leaves legislation and agency action as competing routes for US crypto policy. Investors will be watching whether the vote count moves toward Armstrong's 60-plus expectation or Kalshi's 22% pricing.
Frequently asked questions
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What evidence does Armstrong cite for the CLARITY Act's chances?
He says both sides have “90% of what they want,” presenting that overlap as the basis for a compromise.
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What does Kalshi's 22% estimate reveal about the policy debate?
It reflects a much lower probability of passage than Armstrong's expectation of more than 60 votes, showing a sharp divide between Coinbase's view and prediction-market pricing.
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What regulatory path does Armstrong support if Congress stalls?
He says he still commends the CFTC and SEC chairs for pushing forward with clear rules if the bill does not pass.
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How could a congressional framework differ from agency action?
A congressional framework would provide a law-based route to clearer rules, while agency action is the alternative path Armstrong highlights if the bill fails.
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What should investors watch as the CLARITY Act debate develops?
The vote count will test Armstrong's expectation of more than 60 votes, while CFTC and SEC steps will show whether agency-led clarity advances if Congress stalls.
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