CryptoSlate
Prediction-market odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 climbed above 32% on Polymarket over the weekend, the highest reading since Aug. 2, after Senate Republicans released a 635-page final draft and President Donald Trump agreed to ethics rules requiring federal officials with substantial crypto interests to divest or place their holdings in a qualified blind trust. The bill faces a cloture vote Tuesday on H.R. 3633, a procedural hurdle requiring 60 votes before the Senate can begin considering the legislation. The Polymarket contract for the bill's enactment had peaked near 82% in February before disputes over ethics, stablecoin rewards and DeFi protections pushed it lower.
Why it matters
The final draft incorporates 126 substantive changes Democrats requested, including the ethics framework authored by Sen. Thom Tillis and Sen. Ruben Gallego. Covered federal officials, judges and their spouses would have to divest qualifying crypto holdings or place them in a qualified blind trust, with state attorneys general empowered to enforce the restrictions. White House digital-assets adviser Patrick Witt framed the package as the end of negotiation: after more than a year of talks, Republicans have been responsive to every Democratic policy objective raised.
Republicans also added a stablecoin circuit breaker giving the Treasury secretary authority to intervene if payment stablecoins drive substantial deposit flight from community banks, and narrowed the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act to protect software developers from money-transmission registration while pulling back from broader criminal-case coverage. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Sen. Cynthia Lummis both said Democrats received more than 100 of the changes they sought.
Market impact
The 32% reading still leaves the bill well short of its February highs, and Tuesday's cloture test is fundamentally political rather than probabilistic. Republicans need Democrats to clear the 60-vote threshold, so the next real signal is whether the senators whose objections drove these concessions publicly shift toward supporting debate.
Frequently asked questions
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What does the CLARITY Act do?
It is crypto market-structure legislation that addresses digital-asset trading platforms, stablecoin oversight, protections for blockchain developers, and the regulatory boundary between the SEC and CFTC.
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Why did CLARITY Act prediction-market odds jump above 32%?
Senate Republicans released a 635-page final draft incorporating 126 Democratic-requested changes, and Trump agreed to a divest-or-blind-trust ethics framework for federal officials with major crypto holdings, removing a key Democratic objection.
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What ethics rules did Trump agree to under the revised CLARITY Act?
Covered federal officials, judges and their spouses with substantial crypto interests would be required to divest qualifying holdings or place them in a qualified blind trust, with state attorneys general empowered to enforce the restrictions.
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What is the stablecoin circuit breaker added to the bill?
It gives the Treasury secretary authority to intervene if payment stablecoins are found to be causing substantial withdrawals from community banks, addressing concerns that crypto-based rewards could accelerate deposit flight.
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What is the cloture vote scheduled for Tuesday?
Senators will vote on cloture on H.R. 3633, a procedural step requiring 60 votes that would allow the chamber to begin considering the CLARITY Act and offer the revised text as a substitute amendment.
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