A widely-followed crypto analyst argues that the bull market crypto holders have been waiting for never actually started in 2024, and that the real expansion leg is just now beginning as the business cycle shifts out of a record-long contraction phase. The case rests on a single chart: total crypto market cap versus the S&P 500, which has spent the past five to six years moving sideways without ever reclaiming its 2021 relative high. Bitcoin trades back above $80,000, but is meeting clear resistance on the daily chart, with the analyst flagging the $70,000 to $75,000 range as a likely consolidation zone in the near term.
Why it matters
The framing rejects the popular four-year halving cycle thesis entirely, replacing it with a macro and business-cycle read anchored to PMI. Manufacturing PMI just broke above 55 for the first time in years, a level that historically marked the start of risk-asset expansion phases. In every prior cycle, the analyst notes, crypto was the last domino to fall, lagging copper-versus-gold bottoms, broad equities, and the Russell 2000. That lag means even a confirmed expansion could take quarters to translate into a sustained relative breakout for the total crypto market cap chart against equities.
Market impact
The near-term tape is mixed. Bitcoin's daily chart shows higher highs and higher lows inside its current channel, but the daily RSI is flashing bearish divergence at levels last visited in late 2024, leaving room for a pullback into the $70,000 to $75,000 area and a retest of the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Ethereum sits in a five-year accumulation range that mirrors the post-QT normalization dip of 2019. SUI is back below the 20-week moving average after a brief breakout, putting it back in the analyst's accumulation zone with the long-term risk model showing 67% three-month positive historical outcomes at the current risk score. The trade, in his read, is to use any weakness to add.
Frequently asked questions
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Has the 2024 crypto bull market already happened?
According to the chartist, no. Total crypto market cap versus the S&P 500 has spent 5-6 years sideways without reclaiming its 2021 relative high, meaning 2024's nominal BTC breakout did not deliver the relative breakout that defines a true bull cycle.
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Why does this analyst reject the four-year halving cycle?
He argues crypto's price action has tracked the broader business cycle, not Bitcoin's halving schedule. Five to six years of contraction aligned with record-breaking monetary tightening, not a four-year rhythm.
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What signal marks the start of the new bull market?
Manufacturing PMI breaking above 55, a level that historically marks the start of risk-asset expansion phases. The analyst notes crypto is typically the last domino to fall, lagging copper-vs-gold bottoms, broad equities, and the Russell 2000.
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Is Bitcoin's move above $80,000 confirmed?
Not yet. The chartist sees $80,000 as clear daily resistance with bearish RSI divergence. A pullback into the $70,000-$75,000 range and a retest of the 20- and 200-day moving averages is the more likely near-term path.
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Which altcoins does the analyst favor for accumulation?
Ethereum sits in a five-year accumulation range mirroring the 2019 post-QT dip, and SUI is back below its 20-week moving average with a long-term risk model showing 67% positive 3-month outcomes at current levels. His approach is dollar-cost averaging into both.
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