Ethereum is trading just below $1,900 going into late July, and Into the Cryptoverse host Benjamin Cowen frames the setup as a blend of the 2018 and 2022 midterm-year templates rather than a clean repeat of either.
The structural parallels are concrete. Bitcoin formed a low in February, swept it in late June or early July, and printed a lower high in May, the same sequence seen in 2018, the same president, Cowen argues, with similar macro posture. In both prior midterm cycles, July was a green month for Bitcoin (roughly 20% in 2022, close to 40% in 2018), and August and September gave the gains back. What Ethereum does in that window is the open question.
Why it matters
Cowen's central risk read is social participation. The social risk metric sits near 0.25, roughly where it was in July 2018 and well below the 0.5 reading in July 2022. Low participation, in his framing, is what let altcoins break down in August 2018 even though Bitcoin held the $6,000 level until November. With ETH/BTC tagging the bull market support band roughly every three months (mid-July, mid-April, mid-January) and rejecting at the 20-month moving average, Cowen sees one more leg lower possible if a September-October rate hike or hike scare lands.
Year-to-date ROI versus the yearly open also tracks 2018 closely and sits well above 2022, another data point he cites against a clean 2022 replay. The top, he notes, came on apathy this cycle rather than euphoria, which makes the historical overlays only directional guides.
Market impact
The two scenarios Cowen sketches bracket the range. A 2022-style outcome implies a roughly 40% drawdown from a July high near $2,000-$2,100, putting ETH back at or just under the April 2025 low. A 2018-style outcome implies an 80% drawdown, which he does not expect but refuses to rule out before the August-September window of weakness resolves.
His base case sits between the two, with the bear market resistance band likely rejecting any rally attempts until 2026. Practically, Cowen is waiting for late September or early October, when ETH's behavior during Bitcoin's traditional window of weakness will tell him whether the pair can print a macro higher low against BTC.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Cowen compare the current Ethereum setup to 2018 and 2022?
Both prior midterm years saw BTC print a February low, a May lower high, and a late-June or early-July sweep, with August and September giving back July gains. ETH's behavior during the August-September window of weakness is what differentiated the two cycles.
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What role does social participation play in Cowen's ETH thesis?
Cowen points to a social risk metric near 0.25, roughly the July 2018 reading and well below the 0.5 reading in July 2022. Low participation, he argues, is what allowed altcoins to break down in August 2018 even while BTC held support.
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What are the two drawdown scenarios Cowen lays out for ETH?
A 2022-style outcome implies a ~40% drawdown from a July high near $2,000-$2,100, putting ETH back at or just under the April 2025 low. A 2018-style outcome implies an 80% drawdown from a July high, which Cowen does not expect but does not rule out.
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Why does Cowen think the bear market resistance band will keep rejecting ETH?
ETH/BTC has been tagging the bull market support band roughly every three months and rejecting the 20-month moving average. Cowen expects durable closes above the bear market resistance band to wait until next year, as they did in the 2022 cycle.
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What timeframe is Cowen watching to confirm the ETH setup?
Late September through early October. He wants to see how ETH behaves during Bitcoin's traditional August-September window of weakness before drawing firmer conclusions about whether the BTC pair can print a macro higher low.
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