TheBlock
StoneX kept a Buy rating and a $12 price target on Exodus Movement (EXOD) on Thursday, arguing that the company's push into payments and a much leaner cost base are offsetting weaker activity in its legacy crypto wallet business. Shares jumped more than 8% to $4.68 on the news, and the analyst's target implies a further gain of around 150%.
The fundamentals back the call. Exodus reported third-quarter revenue of $32.5 million on Monday, topping analyst estimates of between $29 million and $31 million, while its adjusted EBITDA loss shrank to $3.9 million from $6.7 million in the second quarter. Net loss totaled $8.3 million.
Why it matters
The payments segment contributed nearly $11 million in its first full quarter following the acquisitions of Monavate and Baanx in May, cushioning a 29% year-over-year drop in wallet-related revenue to $21.6 million. Around 64% of payments revenue came from traditional payments, with the remaining 36% from onchain finance.
StoneX analyst Mark Palmer summed up the thesis in one line: "The cost reset is real." Exodus cut headcount from 326 to 214 employees between May and Monday's earnings, and management expects roughly $30 million in savings going into 2027.
Market impact
The operating leverage argument is what excites bulls. "Our cost base is lower. If exchange volumes rise, revenue can grow without a proportionate increase in overhead," CEO JP Richardson said on Monday's earnings call.
Execution risk remains. Richardson warned that many milestones depend on regulatory approval, and Exodus is still waiting on clearance in Latvia to resume issuing payment cards in Europe. Card issuance in the U.S. has already restarted, making the Latvian decision the next catalyst to watch.
Frequently asked questions
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How much revenue did Exodus report in Q3?
Exodus reported third-quarter revenue of $32.5 million, topping analyst estimates of between $29 million and $31 million. Its adjusted EBITDA loss shrank to $3.9 million from $6.7 million in the second quarter.
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Why did StoneX keep a Buy rating on Exodus?
StoneX analyst Mark Palmer argued that Exodus' push into payments and a lower cost base are offsetting weaker crypto wallet activity, moving the company closer to adjusted breakeven. He described the cost reset as real and set a $12 price target.
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How many employees did Exodus cut and what savings are expected?
Exodus reduced headcount from 326 to 214 employees between May and Monday's earnings report. Management expects roughly $30 million in cost savings going into 2027.
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What share of Exodus payments revenue comes from onchain finance?
Around 36% of Exodus' payments revenue came from onchain finance, while the remaining 64% came from traditional payments. The segment contributed nearly $11 million in its first full quarter.
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What is blocking Exodus from issuing payment cards in Europe?
Exodus is still waiting on regulatory approval in Latvia that would allow it to resume issuing payment cards in Europe. The company has already resumed card issuance in the United States.
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