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Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said he has trimmed his estimated probability of the U.S. CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a tightening Senate calendar as the dominant obstacle.
Why it matters
Thorn flagged that next week in the Senate is likely to be consumed by FISA reauthorization fallout after a failed procedural vote, crowding out floor time for the crypto market structure bill. He also pointed to limited movement on two unresolved issues — lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions — both of which need to clear before CLARITY can advance.
Market impact
Even at 60%, Thorn's revised number still prices CLARITY as more likely than not to pass this year, but the 15-point haircut reflects how narrow the procedural runway has become. For digital asset traders who had been positioning for a clearer U.S. market-structure framework in 2026, the read is that timing — not policy substance — is now the binding constraint.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the CLARITY Act?
The CLARITY Act is the proposed U.S. crypto market structure bill that would define regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets between the SEC and CFTC.
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Why did Alex Thorn cut his CLARITY passage odds to 60%?
Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn said a tightening Senate calendar is the dominant obstacle, with next week likely consumed by FISA reauthorization fallout and limited progress on ethics and illicit finance provisions.
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What changed between Thorn's old 75% estimate and the new 60%?
The 15-point downgrade reflects how narrow the procedural runway has become, not a shift in policy substance — Thorn still calls the bill more likely than not to pass in 2026.
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What issues are still unresolved in the CLARITY Act?
Thorn pointed to two open items: lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions, both of which need to clear before the bill can advance on the Senate floor.
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How does FISA affect the CLARITY Act timeline?
Next week's Senate floor time is expected to be dominated by FISA reauthorization following a failed procedural vote, crowding out time that might otherwise have gone to crypto market structure legislation.
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