A gold market commentator is holding a base case that the next cyclical low prints somewhere between July and October, anchored to a year-to-date return chart that overlays 2026 against the two most recent US midterm years.
The comparison line matters: in 2022, gold bottomed in late September, and in 2018 it bottomed in mid-August. The current year-to-date curve is sitting almost exactly on the average of those two prior midterm trajectories. Gold then turned higher into 2023, 2024, and 2025, but the midterm year itself was the soft patch.
Why it matters
Midterm-cycle seasonality in gold is a pattern traders watch rather than a calendar rule, but the 2018 and 2022 analogs are close enough to make the August to September window a tradable level rather than a forecast. The speaker is also flagging that the drawdown feels sharper this time only because gold entered the year from more elevated levels, not because the percentage retracement is unprecedented.
Market impact
For positioning, the implication is that a low in that window would line up with the historical cadence; a decisive break below the 2018/2022 average curve would invalidate the seasonal thesis and force the base case to revisit whether this midterm year is more like 2022's late flush or something structurally weaker. The next data points to watch are the late-sether retest of the year-to-date low and whether gold can hold the average of the two prior midterm cycles into October.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the speaker's base case for gold?
The commentator expects the next cyclical low to print somewhere between July and October, based on the average of the 2018 and 2022 midterm-year bottoms in gold's year-to-date return curve.
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Why does the gold drawdown feel sharper in 2026?
Gold entered the year from more elevated levels than in prior midterm cycles, so the same percentage retracement reads as a deeper drawdown in nominal terms, even though the year-to-date curve is tracking the historical average.
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When did gold bottom in the last two midterm years?
Gold bottomed in mid-August 2018 and in late September 2022, both falling inside the August to September window the commentator is highlighting for 2026.
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What would invalidate the seasonal gold thesis?
A decisive break below the average curve of the 2018 and 2022 year-to-date returns would invalidate the base case and force a reassessment of whether 2026 is tracking a normal midterm cycle or something structurally weaker.
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How should traders use the midterm-cycle pattern?
The pattern is a seasonal framing rather than a calendar rule, so traders are watching whether gold can hold the average of the two prior cycles into October and whether the late-summer retest of the year-to-date low produces a basing structure.
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