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〽️NEUTRAL

IBIT Beat VOO by 1.6 Points Despite a 53% Drawdown

Two funds that ended within 1.6 points of each other on cumulative return produced wildly different rides for holders. The 2% allocation pitch survives anyway.

BlackRock's IBIT has returned 67.74% from its Jan. 11, 2024 debut through Aug. 31, edging Vanguard's VOO by just 1.60 percentage points on a total-return basis, with VOO at 66.14% over the same window. The near-tie masks a wildly different path: IBIT's worst peak-to-trough decline hit 53.30% between Oct. 6, 2025 and June 30, 2026, while VOO's maximum drawdown over the comparison period was 18.69%. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted the outcome on Sept. 1, calling it hard to believe that IBIT was still ahead given how bearish Bitcoin had been from October through July.

Why it matters

The similarity in headline returns collapses once you adjust for the ride. IBIT holders rode Bitcoin from roughly $47,000 at launch to a record near $126,000 in 2025 after Donald Trump's election victory, then watched the price slide to as low as $58,000 before recovering to around $77,000 as of press time. That round-trip is what produced the 53% drawdown. VOO holders, by contrast, took an 18.69% peak-to-trough drop between February and April 2025 before grinding back. Same destination on the return chart, materially different investor experience.

The story matters because it captures the central pitch Bitcoin ETFs make to traditional allocators: higher long-run returns paid for in volatility. BlackRock has publicly recommended a 2% portfolio allocation to BTC for diversification and long-term return potential. The IBIT-versus-VOO comparison is, in effect, a live audit of that pitch 20 months in, and the answer is that the headline beats the index, but the ride is three times as rough.

Market impact

IBIT is now the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with roughly $60 billion in assets and about $63 billion of cumulative inflows since launch. The scale puts BlackRock's less-than-three-year-old product in rare company for a new ETF, though it is still a fraction of VOO, which crossed $1 trillion in net assets in June 2026 to become the first ETF at that threshold. Liquidity in the broader Bitcoin market has thinned during the same window, as a related piece flags Bitcoin's first institutional bear market draining liquidity from the ecosystem.

Related tokens
$BTC

Frequently asked questions

  1. How has IBIT performed compared to VOO since launch?

    BlackRock's IBIT returned 67.74% from its Jan. 11, 2024 debut through Aug. 31, edging Vanguard's VOO by 1.60 percentage points on a total-return basis, with VOO at 66.14% over the same window.

  2. What was IBIT's worst drawdown compared to VOO's?

    IBIT's worst peak-to-trough decline reached 53.30% between Oct. 6, 2025 and June 30, 2026. VOO's maximum drawdown over the comparison period was 18.69%, from Feb. 19 through April 8, 2025.

  3. Why was IBIT's drawdown nearly three times deeper than VOO's?

    Bitcoin traded near $47,000 at launch, surged to a record around $126,000 in 2025 after Trump's election win, then fell as low as $58,000 before recovering to roughly $77,000. That peak-to-trough round-trip drove the 53% drawdown.

  4. How large is IBIT compared to VOO now?

    IBIT manages about $60 billion in assets and has pulled in roughly $63 billion in cumulative inflows since launch. VOO crossed $1 trillion in net assets in June 2026, becoming the first ETF to reach that threshold.

  5. What allocation does BlackRock recommend for Bitcoin in a portfolio?

    BlackRock has publicly recommended a 2% BTC allocation for investors seeking diversification and long-term return potential, framing the volatility as the trade-off for uncorrelated exposure.

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