Long-term Bitcoin holders — wallets sitting on BTC for more than 155 days — have climbed to their highest share of supply since 2023, signalling that short-term holders have stopped distributing. Historically, that supply pattern — sellers exhausted while conviction holders refuse to rotate out — has marked local bottoms rather than tops, and the on-chain read is now matching that 2023 setup just as equities sit at multi-year highs and IPO season opens.
The structural bid is showing up in places the legacy market has not noticed yet. ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher told a Bernstein conference that Hyperliquid, a decentralized crypto derivatives platform, runs more trading activity than Nasdaq. Hyperliquid controls more than 70% of the decentralized perpetual futures market, much of it from non-crypto traders who arrived for 24/7 oil and precious-metals derivatives while CME markets were closed. Bitwise's head of research framed HYPE's fee-driven buyback as a programmatic equivalent of a corporate repurchase — a structurally higher buyback yield, on the math, than the S&P 500 average of roughly 2%. The CFTC's approval of the first US-listed Bitcoin perpetual futures last week — not on Hyperliquid — is the regulatory nod that perps are now in-bounds for American venues.
Why it matters
The macro setup is unusually divergent: the S&P 500 is on pace for one of the tightest clusters of all-time highs in 75 years, gold and real estate are near records, and the largest IPO slate in years is about to price — yet crypto is consolidating rather than rolling over. That divergence is the trade. Ondo Global Markets crossed $1B in total value locked last month, now holds more than 70% of the tokenized-stock market, and controls 42% of the broader RWA category; Ondo Finance has joined the DTCC's working group on tokenizing US capital markets, and the DTCC itself disclosed roughly $100 trillion in assets and 1.4 million qualified participants in custody that could eventually use tokenized collateral at network speed across time zones.
Market impact
The AI-coordination thesis is the second leg. Bittensor (TAO) is being positioned as the fair-launch, decentralized equivalent of Bitcoin's miner block-rewards — redirecting roughly $1B/year (heading to $10B) in incentives to AI compute contributors instead of hashpower. A new confidential routing layer, Subnet 28, adds privacy to TAO inference, addressing a gap that pushed capital toward Venom (Venice) earlier in the year.
Frequently asked questions
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Why are long-term Bitcoin holders hitting a 2023 high significant?
Wallets holding BTC for more than 155 days have climbed to their highest share of supply since 2023, meaning short-term holders have stopped distributing. That exhaustion pattern has historically marked local bottoms rather than tops, and it is the setup forming now as equities sit at multi-year highs.
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What did ICE's CEO say about Hyperliquid?
Jeffrey Sprecher told a Bernstein conference that Hyperliquid, a decentralized crypto derivatives platform, runs more trading activity than Nasdaq. The platform controls more than 70% of the decentralized perpetual futures market, much of it from non-crypto traders using 24/7 oil and metals derivatives while CME is…
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What is the CFTC's recent move on Bitcoin perpetual futures?
The CFTC approved the first US-listed Bitcoin perpetual futures last week, on a regulated US exchange (not Hyperliquid). It is a regulatory green light the US perps market has been waiting on and signals that perpetual futures are now in-bounds for American venues.
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Why is Ondo's DTCC working-group seat important?
Ondo Global Markets crossed $1B in TVL, holds more than 70% of the tokenized-stock market, and controls 42% of the broader RWA category. Joining the DTCC's working group on tokenizing US capital markets gives Ondo a seat alongside the infrastructure layer that custodies roughly $100T in assets and 1.4M qualified…
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What is the Bittensor Subnet 28 private-inference layer?
Subnet 28 adds confidential routing to Bittensor's (TAO) AI inference network, allowing private model calls on a fair-launch, decentralized compute market. It addresses the privacy gap that previously pushed capital toward competing AI tokens like Venice, and it routes roughly $1B/year (heading to $10B) in TAO…
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