Brent crude oil surged more than 5% back above the $100 per barrel threshold after Iran abruptly ended nuclear negotiations with the United States and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil supply transits daily.
The Strait of Hormuz closure threat is the single most disruptive card Tehran can play on global energy markets. Even a partial blockade would force tanker rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to delivery timelines and compressing already-tight refinery margins across Europe and Asia.
For crypto and risk assets, a sustained oil shock above $100 is stagflationary — it pressures central banks to hold rates higher for longer while simultaneously squeezing consumer spending. Traders will be watching whether this is a negotiating posture or a genuine policy shift from Tehran.
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