Of the 38 initial DEX offerings tracked in 2026, just one token is sitting on positive ROI, according to Cryptorank data. The rest are underwater — and more than half have lost 99% or more of their launch value.
Why it matters
The read is brutal but clean: the IDO model, pitched as a fairer alternative to VC-heavy token sales, has produced a near-zero hit rate for retail buyers in this cycle. A 1-in-38 success distribution isn't diversification — it's a lottery with one winning ticket, and the median outcome is a -90% drawdown before the first anniversary.
Market impact
For participants still allocating to IDOs, the math has flipped: the expected value of a typical 2026 IDO allocation is decisively negative once you weight for the >50% tail of -99% drawdowns. Capital is more likely to rotate toward established liquid tokens, blue-chip L1s, or on-chain yield venues with trackable cashflow rather than continue feeding a primary market where the modal outcome is total loss.
The Cryptorank dashboard tracks the full 38-project list — link in source.
Frequently asked questions
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How many IDOs have launched in 2026?
According to Cryptorank, 38 IDOs have launched in 2026 as of the latest tracking window.
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How many 2026 IDOs are in positive ROI?
Just one of the 38 IDOs tracked in 2026 is showing positive ROI, per Cryptorank's ROI dashboard.
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What share of 2026 IDO tokens are down 99% or more?
More than 50% of tokens launched via IDO in 2026 have dropped 99% or more from their launch price.
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Why is the 2026 IDO hit rate so low?
The data shows a near-zero success rate for retail buyers: 1 winner out of 38 launches, with a -90% median drawdown and a thick tail of near-total losses.
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Where is IDO capital likely to rotate next?
Given the negative expected value, capital is more likely to migrate toward established liquid tokens, blue-chip L1s, and on-chain yield venues with trackable cashflow rather than continue funding IDO primary markets.
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