CoinDesk
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said Friday that bitcoin has locked in its cycle low at about $59,000 — a 53% drop from the Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000 — and declared "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring." CoinDesk data shows BTC touched as low as $59,375 on June 5 around 18:00 UTC, and was hovering just shy of $64,000 as of writing.
Why it matters
Kendrick framed two catalysts behind the turn. First, spot bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $5.72 billion in redemptions since the second week of May — some of the sharpest sustained selling since inception — and Kendrick says holders have been anecdotally liquidating positions to free cash for the SpaceX IPO. Now that Elon Musk's SpaceX has begun trading on Nasdaq at around $150 and is roughly 26% above its IPO price, that specific drain should close. Second, a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal could cap Brent crude (already near $87) and WTI (around $85), cooling rising U.S. Treasury yields and the macro pressure that's weighed on risk assets.
Market impact
Kendrick is looking for three confirmations: a Monday disclosure that Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) added bitcoin this week, a return to net-positive daily inflows in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday, and continued softness in international crude. He maintains a $4,000 ether and $100,000 bitcoin year-end target, and expects ether to outperform bitcoin into the recovery. The near-term risk is Washington's peace-deal reversal — Trump walked back public terms on Truth Social, warning Tehran to "get their act together," leaving the oil-yield thesis on a knife edge.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick say about bitcoin's bottom?
Kendrick said bitcoin has likely set its cycle low at about $59,000, a 53% drop from the Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000. He declared "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring."
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Why does Kendrick think the selling pressure is ending now?
He argues spot bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $5.72 billion in redemptions since early May, partly as holders liquidated to free cash for the SpaceX IPO. Now that SpaceX is trading on Nasdaq around 26% above its IPO price, that specific drain should close.
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How would a U.S.-Iran peace deal help crypto prices?
A peace deal could cap Brent crude (~$87) and WTI (~$85), which would cool rising U.S. Treasury yields and ease the macro pressure that's weighed on risk assets including crypto.
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What three signals is Kendrick watching to confirm the bottom?
He is watching for a Monday disclosure that Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) added bitcoin, a return to net-positive daily inflows in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday, and continued softness in international oil prices.
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What are Kendrick's year-end price targets?
Kendrick maintains a $100,000 bitcoin target and a $4,000 ether target by year-end, and expects ether to outperform bitcoin into the recovery.
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