CoinDesk
Standard Chartered's senior digital assets analyst Geoffrey Kendrick declared Friday that Bitcoin has set its definitive cycle low at $59,000 — a 53% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 — and that the latest crypto winter is now behind us. "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Kendrick wrote in a note to clients. Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 at the time of writing, having touched $59,375 on June 5.
Why it matters
Kendrick identified two structural catalysts driving the reversal. First, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $5.72 billion in net redemptions since the second week of May — some of the heaviest selling since the products launched — with anecdotal evidence pointing to investors liquidating ETF positions to fund participation in the SpaceX IPO. With SpaceX shares now trading on Nasdaq at roughly $150, up approximately 26% from their IPO price, that specific selling pressure is expected to ease. Second, a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal brokered at the G7 level could cap oil prices, cooling Treasury yields and relieving a key macro headwind for risk assets including crypto. Brent crude had already slipped to around $87 a barrel on the news, though President Trump later walked back the deal's terms on Truth Social.
Market impact
Kendrick holds a $100,000 year-end Bitcoin price target and a $4,000 target for Ether, and explicitly expects ETH to outperform BTC from this point in the cycle. He is watching three confirmation signals in the near term: a new Bitcoin purchase announcement from Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR), a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and continued declines in international oil prices.
Frequently asked questions
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What two catalysts does Kendrick cite as ending the crypto winter?
He points to the SpaceX IPO absorbing investor cash and driving heavy ETF redemptions — pressure that should now ease — and a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal that could cap oil prices and reduce macro headwinds for crypto.
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What three signals is Standard Chartered watching to confirm the market bottom?
A new Bitcoin purchase announcement from Michael Saylor's Strategy, a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and continued declines in international oil prices.
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Why does Kendrick expect Ether to outperform Bitcoin from this point in the cycle?
Kendrick holds a $4,000 ETH target alongside his $100,000 BTC target and explicitly states he expects ETH to outperform BTC from the current cycle low, though the seed does not detail the specific mechanism behind that call.
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