TheBlock
William Blair trimmed its forecasts for Coinbase on Friday, telling clients the exchange's earnings should bottom in the second half of 2026 before rebounding next year. The note frames the current drawdown as cyclical rather than structural.
Why it matters
Coinbase has been trading as the cleanest public-market proxy for crypto volumes, so a downgrade to its forward earnings reads as a sober confirmation that the 2026 revenue setup is thinner than bulls hoped. William Blair's team still sees the cycle turning, just later than the consensus was positioned for.
Market impact
The analysts pointed to Base, derivatives, and prediction markets as the lines of business expanding Coinbase's revenue beyond spot trading. That mix matters because non-spot lines carry different sensitivity to token-price action and tend to hold up better when retail interest cools. The base case is that Coinbase weathers the trough on revenue diversification, then compounds as the broader market re-engages.
Frequently asked questions
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What did William Blair change in its Coinbase forecast?
William Blair trimmed its Coinbase forecasts on Friday and told clients earnings should bottom in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027.
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Why did analysts describe the downturn as cyclical rather than structural?
Analysts pointed to Base, derivatives, and prediction markets as Coinbase revenue lines that expand the franchise beyond spot trading, suggesting the business can hold up through a soft crypto cycle.
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Which Coinbase business lines did analysts highlight?
The note called out Base, derivatives, and prediction markets as the segments broadening Coinbase's revenue beyond spot trading volume.
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When do William Blair analysts expect Coinbase earnings to recover?
The team expects earnings to bottom in the second half of 2026 and rebound the following year.
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How does this downgrade affect Coinbase stock?
Coinbase trades as a public-market proxy for crypto volumes, so a forecast cut reads as a confirmation that 2026 revenue will be thinner than bulls expected, though the recovery call limits the downside framing.
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