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XRP is trading back above $1.40 after a series of bullish catalysts, including a recent Middle East expansion and a new partnership with OKX. The move has been orderly rather than euphoric, with derivatives data pointing to a market that is unusually under-positioned for the prevailing price.
A CryptoQuant analysis flagged a sharp divergence between XRP's estimated leverage ratio on Binance and spot price. The ratio has collapsed to approximately 0.1, a level last recorded in late October 2024 when XRP was changing hands near $0.50. Today, with the token trading near $1.30–$1.40, the price is roughly three times that comparison point while speculative leverage sits at a fraction of the positioning that normally accompanies it.
Why it matters
Low leverage at an elevated price is a coiled-spring setup. Excess long positioning has already been flushed out, leaving a relatively clean order book for the next directional move. The last time a similar divergence resolved to the upside — between late June and mid-July 2025 — XRP rallied from $1.96 to $3.65 as the estimated leverage ratio climbed from below 0.3 to just under 0.6 over four weeks.
The asymmetry is what makes the setup uncomfortable for short sellers. A rebuild of leverage into fresh long positioning could force a violent squeeze, while a price collapse back toward $1.00–$1.10 would be the cleaner resolution that doesn't punish the bearish side as severely. Passive short exposure at current levels carries the worse risk-reward of the two outcomes.
Market impact
If leverage begins rebuilding as new capital enters, XRP could push toward the $2.00 psychological level and potentially retrace toward the mid-2025 highs near $3.65. The path lower — a flush into the $1.00–$1.10 range — would technically close the divergence without triggering a squeeze, but it requires price to do most of the work on its own. Volume remains subdued for now, and consolidation above key support reads as accumulation rather than distribution, but the next leg will likely arrive fast once leverage starts to climb.
Frequently asked questions
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What is XRP's current estimated leverage ratio on Binance?
XRP's estimated leverage ratio on Binance has dropped to approximately 0.1, according to a CryptoQuant analysis. That is a level last recorded in late October 2024, when XRP was trading near $0.50.
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Why is low leverage at an elevated XRP price significant?
Low leverage combined with a higher price indicates an under-positioned market after excess speculative longs were flushed. Historically, when leverage rebuilds from these levels, the next directional move tends to be sharp and fast.
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How high could XRP go if a short squeeze develops?
If leverage rebuilds and fresh long capital enters, XRP could push toward the $2.00 psychological level and potentially retrace toward the mid-2025 highs near $3.65, based on the pattern from the June–July 2025 squeeze.
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What happened the last time XRP showed a similar leverage divergence?
Between late June and mid-July 2025, XRP rallied from $1.96 to $3.65 as the estimated leverage ratio climbed from below 0.3 to just under 0.6 over four weeks. The setup being flagged now mirrors that pre-squeeze configuration.
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What would invalidate the bullish leverage thesis on XRP?
A price collapse back toward the $1.00–$1.10 area would technically resolve the divergence without triggering a squeeze. That outcome requires price to do most of the work on its own rather than leverage-driven positioning.
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