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XRP's on-chain activity has collapsed to pre-2025 levels even as price stabilizes in a narrow band. Glassnode data shows the 90-day simple moving average of total network fees paid has fallen from 5,900 XRP in February to just 500 XRP today — a 91.5% contraction that signals the speculation-driven transaction phase is effectively over.
Why it matters
The 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to 0.38, down from a peak of 50 when XRP traded near $3.40 in January 2025. At 0.38, participants are realizing roughly $1 in losses for every $0.38 in profit — a classic capitulation signature that has historically preceded XRP recoveries, though timing a bottom inside a fee-contraction environment of this magnitude carries significant risk. Notably, large-wallet transfers of 1 million XRP or more to Binance have declined since the 2025 peak, suggesting major holders are not aggressively distributing into weakness.
Market impact
XRP is consolidating between $1.10 and $1.15, below the 100-hour simple moving average, after a failed attempt to hold above $1.30. Immediate support sits at $1.05–$1.10, with a secondary demand pocket at $1.00. Resistance is layered at $1.20–$1.25 and then $1.30–$1.40. A clean reclaim of $1.50 would shift short-term momentum toward the mid-$1.60s. The downside scenario is a close below $1.10, which opens the $1.00 target and potentially the $1.00–$0.65 macro support band if the correction extends.
Frequently asked questions
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What does XRP's 0.38 profit-to-loss ratio signal for price direction?
A ratio below 1.0 means participants are realizing more losses than profits — a capitulation signature. Historically this level has preceded XRP recoveries, though the current 91.5% fee contraction adds uncertainty to the timing.
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Why does the decline in large-wallet Binance inflows matter for XRP?
Transfers of 1 million XRP or more to Binance have fallen since the 2025 peak, indicating major holders are not aggressively selling into the current weakness, which reduces near-term distribution pressure.
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What are the key price levels traders are watching for XRP right now?
Support sits at $1.05–$1.10 with a secondary pocket at $1.00; resistance layers at $1.20–$1.25 and $1.30–$1.40. A reclaim of $1.50 would open a path toward the mid-$1.60s, while a close below $1.10 targets $1.00 and potentially the $1.00–$0.65 macro support band.
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